Alydar wrote:
"You wrote something on the Paceadvantage board that I found perplexing: "Sheet theory says 0 (top) followed by an effort within 2 pts of the new top will lead to an X, an effort 4 pts + from the new top." Isn't this too categorical?" Perhaps.
The nature of the top is by far the most important aspect of any analysis.
The post was aimed at those that really don't follow these speed figs. But at some point one has to draw lines somewhere. The comments were directed to Harlan and I thought long and hard about it, especially when HH had run several of the "2's" so to speak which were tops.
Generally, those on an "0-2-X" are short prices. In my minds eye, dissmissing them is the way to bet. So you miss a short priced tri/exa when they run, no loss in the long run. Of course if a repeat of the "2" is competitive and a big price, then you play for a repeat. Price dictates most plays.
I really don't post or drop in that often on the PA board, it runs in streaks.
I'm starting a study on "0-2-X" and other patterns. I've downloaded thousands of races from all over so it should be fairly representative. Buuut something tells me to keep a separate record of the big circuits vs the small. 3yo's will be by themselves. I'll see how it goes. LOL If you have a request, let me know.
May they all come home safely!
bdhsheets@hotmail.com
