There MIGHT be value in this race, buuuut kinda doubt it.
Werblin: 8-1 12.1s ////// 3.1s 5s five weeks from big top didn't react too badly, 8 weeks ;-) since his top. Important data missing from Thoro-Quick: Sire (Unbridled Song) TGI fig for races less than a route. Nakatani dumped for Stevens
Calkins Road: 30-1 12.2s 11r 10.2r has never gone back, small moves forward could lead to explosive top. 6, 7 point move is asking alot
Cottonwood Cowboy: 20-1 14s -15.2r 10s 7.2s 8.1r 9r strong route efforts off 6.2 pt top, gets best US jock Valenzuela (when straight LOL). Shot for bottom of tri's.
Fonz's: 7/2 13s 7.2s 5s 5r 1st race of '02. Paired up 5's strong combo, 11 weeks rest very helpful. Trainer La Croix is weak generally 7-8% in most categories including 30-89 days. Doubt if we'll see 7/2.
Ocean Sound: 15-1 raced in Britain, US debut -8 on the downhill course. ???? on the dirt, sire shows only 3 horses with 13 starts on the dirt. Trainer 0/30 turf to dirt.
Came Home: 4/5 13.1s 4s 4s 9r /// <0> Big 4 pt top to a zero on three weeks rest makes him a vulnerable fav. (I hope) even a 3, 4 pt bounce will still keep him in the mix. New stalking style will cause him to lose ground on both turns. Still, the huge effort effort for a Feb 3yo has got "play against" written all over it.
Pelirrojo: 6-1 9.2s 8.2s 6.3r has only improved 2.3 pts thus far, 4+weeks from top forward move likely, but will closer style, that guarantees ground loss be too much to overcome?
Major Storm: 30-1 waaaay tooo slow, has a 12.1 top back in Sept. but is "you can't win 'em unless you run inem" Lukas, so who knows for sure. He most likely will miss the Derby again.
Easy Grades: 8-1 yikes! 14.1s -10.2r -10.2r pair up is nice but big forward move with Turf sire is unlikely.
The Play:
Werblin gets the ground saving trip and won't have to contend with a 44 and change pace scenario. A 46+ half will leave enough in the tank to turn the tables on Came Home. Cottonwood, Fonzs & C.H batle for the second slot. Pelirrojo mayb a slice........
Good Luck to all!
bdhsheets
May they all come home safely!
bdhsheets@hotmail.com
