Kudos,AB, on a very good analysis of some very good horses in a very good race which, depending on the odds, may be playable at a 1-3 unit level above an "action" bet.
If GH in fact goes off at 4-1, which tranlates to a 20% chance to win, he will be a solid overlay if you agree his actual chances are approx. 35-40%. AB's concern re re the FG strip is well founded, but note that GH has run well at 7 different venues & 3 of his 4 "bad" races were at GP. At 4-1, you don't need much to toss the Donn, & the 2/25 work, the better post with the main speed to the outside, the more favorable pace scenario, & GH's running style, which does well at FG, should be enough. It also seems from GH's line that Pletcher knows when he needs rest, & the fact that he is bringing GH back on 3 weeks can be viewed as a plus.
AB & I can agree to disagree re KAN, but in the circumstances of this race it doesn't matter if KAN's a contender at 7-2 vs 19-1 last time around. Horses with KAN's style have a .57 impact value for the 197 routes run so far at FG, & as much as I like GH, I would rather book 7-2 win bets on KAN.
If you're willing to go to 3-1 on GH & think KAN shld be 5-1, the one way E needs to pay $46 or more, unlikely unless the Cajuns & simul players pound Valhol, & even then KAN cld easily run 3rd or, as AB aptly pts out, bounce. Frantz & Co are offering a $1 Sfc on the race, which raises the possibility of keying GH over 5 for $60 in addition to the win bet, assuming one can negotiate the suprisingly difficult task of eliminating 3 as unlikely to run as high as 4th.
Finally, weather may have an impact, as it rained all day Fri & was raining again by the last on Sat. The forcast is for the kind of cool fall-like weather GH seems to like, with wind gusts up to 30 mph with a 20% chance of precip., which might be worth monitoring thru the day if this is a "prime" bet for you.
