Good read on the previous 5 years of TG data for Belmont top 3 finishers and here's some more truths. Godolphin horses are running poorly so far this year in this country. They have one odds-on maiden winner, Dubai Tiger, out of 6 runners so far. None of the other 5 have even finished in the money! Including odds on Infinite Spirit. Don't worry though Ibn will go next in a maiden race and possibly get their 2nd win at odds-on.
I don't know exactly whats going on but I personally expected better performances from all of the other Godolphin runners including Essence. E Dubai was originally pointing to the Met mile and wasen't ready, Don't know whats taking Express Tour so long to come to hand this year. Imperial Gesture was going to run in the Acorn and now isn't. Don't believe Eoin Harty has had a starter yet this year, and I can go on with more examples. Lots of high priced and well bred homebreds not running to their potential...yet.
Until I see signs of life from some Godolphin runners I'm steering clear, at underlay odds just like I would with any cold barn.
As for Essence of Dubai specifically. He's one of my Godolphin 7 stars horses and I'd love to rack up another 50 points with a win in the Belmont, but I just don't believe its gonna happen. Despite his TG pattern possibly (and I'm not convinced this is the case)fitting the profile of a Belmont winner or contender. One profile that does not fit is the layoff. With the exception of 2000 all/most of the top 3 finishers in recent years had a race after the first week in May. I still remember how Conquistador Cielo came up to and won the Belmont.
My opinion is he's (EOD) just too slow for this group, mainly based on his TG numbers. He's gonna have to move forward significantly to be competitive. I don't like any of the horses in this years Belmont not having run recently, which includes EOD and Perfect Drift. Plus his running style is another concern I have. What happened to the pace speed he demonstrated last year? He's also very high strung and with a horse like this you always have to consider that he could leave his best race back in the Paddock or during the Post Parade-too bad he's so well bred cause gelding is what this guy needs to improve. Pre-race inspection is a required part of deciding what to do with this horse in each race he runs. Want more...He's been working slow-with his last work the slowest of 17. And to top it off he will be overbet. At 20-1 I'm kinda interested, anything less and I'll look elsewhere. For what its worth I've become a little interested in MD despite Frankel runners typically not improving after the first 2 or 3 races of a campaign.
