Chris,
In regard to your list, of those mentioned, I tossed every horse mentioned except for Captain Steve and I think High Yield for reasons regarding breeding.
Your point about sub 6 figures as a 2yo is a noteworthy one, and one that causes me some concern regarding my pick this year, Repent.
However, I was in a similar situation in 1993 when the horse I touted for 6 months, Sea Hero entered the Derby after a 4th place finish. Part of my criteria was that every winner of the Derby had an on the board finish in his final prep. Sea Hero finished 4th in Blue Grass after a troubled trip which certainly cost him 3rd money.
I had this discussion when I was a co host of a radio show in New Mexico with a fellow handicapper from New York who went by the moniker "The Rabbi". We had a great back and forth about Sea Hero. After the race, "The Rabbi" had conceded that if Sea Hero ran 3rd in the BG, he would have picked him to win the Derby.
Which brings me to the sub 6 TG figures. In this day and age of breeding for speed as opposed to stamina, horses are running faster numbers earlier in thier lives than ever before. They may not be around as 4 yo's (entire Derby field of last year)but we are dealing with the now and not the later. And right now, Repent has very little competition. If he stays sound and McPeek doesn't get cheated again (Oh no, not that story again LOL), Repent is like Sea Hero, a mortal lock to win the 2002 Derby.
(BTW, Sea Hero paid $36.40 to win at the NM tracks in the days of seperate wagering pools. Bet my last $200 ($100 WP) on him. It was a great day. Unfortunately, Repent will be 5-2 at post time, or less.
Best wishes,
Mark
