Re: Calling out the Freak (1058 Views)

Author: Jason L.
Date: 06-11-02 17:38

I don't really care about "the Freak's" picks, but I disagree with your analysis on which horse's the sheets provide valuable information.

First, on a horse coming off a layoff. I never look at trainer stats, but when a two year-old runs a good number first time out and then comes back off a layoff as a 3 year old, they often move forward. I make money on these plays all the time (though this one was not a great price). You cannot make this play if you don't know what number the horse ran at 2.

Second, on Euro horses. It is not that hard to approximate timeform ratings into sheet numbers. Thus, you can often make good money either throwing out horses or using horses by comparing the timeform ratings to the sheet numbers. That horse's timeform ratings made it very competitive in that race at a good price.

****************************

Jason:

You should try using trainer stats of some kind, it'll help your bottom line. 2yos off a big number coming off the layoff (they look fast on everbodys speed figs) are usually huge underlays, not sure how you're making money on them when they miss more often than not.

Your comment on Timeform is silly. If it were easy to project a "sheet fig" from their ratings don't you think TG or Rag would be doing so on a consistent basis?

Good Luck anyhow.



May they all come home safely!

bdhsheets@hotmail.com