This is interesting. A few comments.
Re: Buck's Boy. "That year there were many horses right around the 4 range, but Bucks Boy was a lone speed play and that caused me to expect a better number out of him than his competetors."
As I recall, this was a three turn race. You can look at this as a pace issue, but you can also simply give Buck's Boy credit for ground loss (and lack thereof). Since Buck's Boy is going to be in the 1 path all the way around (I think he also started from the rail), if he runs his 4 again, other horses are going to have to run MUCH better to beat him (assuming equal weights - especially with 3 turns) to make up for this 1 path edge.
The point being, Buck's Boy did not have to run a better number than his competitors. If he runs a 4 and they run 4's, they're going to lose unless they can save more ground, which was unlikely.
JB or others can correct me on this, but in TG handicapping, 'pace' is often factored in on this 'ground loss' basis (i.e., in considering pace scenarios, the front runners should get credit for saving ground, and if two horses are going to run 4's, the one that's going to lose all the ground may have to run a 2 or better to get in the picture).
I remember this becuase I used Buck's Boy in Pick 3's but I liked Hawksley Hill and tossed Da Hoss.
Stretchouts - I have done MUCH better playing horses who have shown early speed when they figure to have this early edge over a field of routers. The whole key being that the horse is going to be able to carry his speed further running a half in 47-48 as opposed to the 45-46's he's been running in sprints. This works well in the 1-1/16 or 1-1/8 races but going further I tend to mark them down regardless. In my observation, horses who run late in sprints run late in the routes too.
Turnbacks - I like them a lot more if they are in 6-7f races where there figures to be a speed duel. If there isn't a hot pace, their stretch edge is greatly diminished.
Obviously these observations are not based on the BRIS or other pace figures. I'm sure pace figures can give you a more accurate picture than the racing form, but this is how I've been playing them. I find the TG trainer data is very helpful, since some trainers are really focused on this kind of thing and some aren't.
If your angles work more power to you. I'm sure there are specific situations (like the KEE and SA stuff you mention) where this kind of analysis is very valuable. HP
