This race hasn't exactly been kind to me over the year, with my only score coming on Spinning World, albeit at 4-1 in the Bally's Future Book only weeks before the Cup. This year looks as tough as any. Here's my thoughts in sheet order...
Aldebaran - Obviously Frankel & Co. have gotten tired of being the bridesmaid and returns this one to the lawn. Has the improvement this year been the switch to dirt and shortening up, or a year of physical maturation? I'm siding with the earlier. Last year turf tries were uninspiring, however he has turned the corner this year. Even if he takes to the turf again, I can't see him running any better than a 1 here. Ground loss seems likely no matter what the post.
Beat Hollow - The knock on him is his inability to go 8 panels. I'm not too positive on his line coming in. With the short rest on which he's only raced once, plus the pairing of tops I expect him to regress slightly to about a 2, and therefore burn a lot of American greenbacks.
Boston Common - Not sure what Englander and Co. have cooked up here. Not confident enough to tackle the Sprint race, so they try him on the turf with which the owner is obsessed with. After being turned over to one of his more money trainers in Pino, this one flourished after reacting to the big top in his frist race at DEL in 2002. The switch to Lake is also a bit odd, going to have to dig to find out the answer to that one. I don't like Boston Harbor's going onto the turf or stretching out, and for those reasons, I can't see him being a factor in this race.
Del Mar Show - Another horse trying to turn back to a flat mile. Reacted as expected off of the paired tops in the summer. I can't see him improving enough to even be a remote factor. Ground loss problems for him as well.
Domedriver - Useful horse for the Niarchos family. Always in the hunt, but nothing really pops out to me on paper. He did lose to Banks Hill by less than 2 this year, but I'm not too keen on her line this year either. His style of running from the back of the field will most likely be a problem, although the last few running have seen winners come from the clouds. Yet to see a left handed turn. I'll pass on him for the win slot.
Forbidden Apple - The old boy comes back for more. Off of his last top, with short rest, I have to think that he will react ever so slightly. Enough to put him out of the cash.
Good Journey - Typical So. Cal. miler. Very few races, well spaced. Seems dangerous. Given what he's done this year, plus the fact he's fresh and has good spacing coming into this one, he could be ready to equal his top at CD and be a major player here. Should be a nice price on the board with FA, BH and the Euro taking a lot of money.
Gossamer - Seems to like the softer going. Ran right with The Rock and Banks Hill, but given the likelihood of firm ground at AP, I'll take a stand against her.
Hawk Wing - Going for the big money...
Landseer - Hard to draw a line from this one off of one figure. Would have to improve to win this one. Seems to relish the firm footing, was only a little more than a length off of The Rock at Ascot this year. Seems to be able to run any kind of style, and could be dangerous here.
Medecis - Hasn't done much wrong yet. Wasn't disgraced in the Prix Jacques le Marios. Last was a good blow out for the stretch out to a mile and could be a factor here.
Rock of Gilbraltar - The Mile goes through him, plain and simple. Will get the firm ground he wants and it's his to lose. Only question is whether the left hand turn will confuse him. But with a horse of his caliber, I think the answer will be no.
The Tin Man - Is just too slow to be a factor here. Nothing pointing to an explosive move. Masterful ride by Smith won him the Hirsch.
Touch Of The Blues - Off of the big top, combined with short rest, looks to bounce hard here. He did so last year and has this year for the most part as well and October 26th will be no different.
Volponi - Most likely going to the Classic If he runs here, could be an exotics factor, although the last out could hurt those chances. Don't expect to see him here.
Zenda - Even if she gets in is just too slow.
Nuclear Debate - Too slow. Probably won't draw in.
Dress To Thrill - Has to draw in. I'll take a shot against a 3 year old filly.
Green Fee - Too slow.
Chopinina - Too slow.
North East Bound - Too slow.
D'Wildcat - Too slow.
One Won One - Now I do not know thing one (Won, One) about Miss Morgan, but she has run thsi 8 year old on no days rest twice this year. I thought maybe the TG sheet was a mistake, but no mistake it was. Are the Milch's that hard up for the cash they need to run him every day?
Thunderello - Goes to the Sprint.
As I said, all things BC Mile, much like the Med. Sea, go by the Rock Of Gibraltar. Seems to be a legitimate Euro miler, unlike ghosts of the past such as Arazi, Mark of Esteem, Charnwood Forest, Desert Prince to name a few. If I had to play the race today, I would be looking to Good Journey. Figures to be a price and I like his line more than anyone elses. Is just flat out faster than the rest of the U.S. contingent.
