I'm not sure if I've ever cashed a ticket in this silly race, so take my reads with a bucket full of salt. Two turn and two turn grass races are my gig. These horses freaking in and out to negative numbers just confuses the hell out of me. The question is, "Who can run a negative number today?" In sheet order...
Bonapaw - Will we see him in a a few years as the 2004 version of Bet On Sunshine. Old boy keeps rolling. But I have my doubts. This one has normally reacted rather adversly in the past to negative number, usually to the 2+ range. In his last three forms, in which he's popped many negative figures, there has been a big (relative) bounce somewhere. This has yet to happen in the latest cycle. He "bounced" to a 0 last out. Was it enough of a recover figure for him? I'm going to say no and cross my fingers.
Carson Hollow - Slowly developing sort who has done nothing wrong and why not take a shot with the weight allowance? Could improve with the paired tops, but the liklihood seems slim, and even with the weights looks like a minor threat to win.
Crafty C.T. - Can someone say HYPE? On short rest he's unlikely to break through to "the other (negative) side. One positive - he doesn't need to take his track with him.
Day Trader - The spacing on this 3 year old colt scares me a bit. 3 big races in 6 weeks time. Given that he'd have to improve to win, I find it highly unlikely that he could. Looks to be circling out of form.
Disturbingthepeace - Can the skein be continued? Possibly. Will I be in his corner to find out? Probably not. I'm pegging him for a 1, which won't win. If he can continue his slow maturation, could be one to look for next year if Vienna doesn't run him into the ground.
D'Wildcat - May miss the race due to illness. Even if he did show, he wouldn't be a factor. Never the same since the Swale.
Gygistar - Possible winner OUT.
Kalookan Queen - 3 point top, 3 weeks rest, older mare? NEXT!
Kona Gold - How many horses can say 7 of their last 10 were negative? Not many that are still running. Headley has done a masterful job with the old boy. Although he might have lost a step, I think Bruce may be able to squeeze the lemon once more and coax a 0 or negative number out of him. Has run very well while fresh before.
Orientate - As I said before in a previous analysis. It used to be a negative would cause an "X", then two consecutive, now three. As you can see in the BC field, it takes more than one to knock out a true champion. Is this the end of the line for Oreintate? There aren't just negatives, but HUGE negatives. Never doubt Lukas, but at the short price he will most likely be, I'll be taking a stand against him. Hopefully he makes it through the race safely.
Swept Overboard - He ust have a taste for sake, because his return from his brilliant Met Mile was a tad disappointing. However I just have a gut feel that he's only going to run a 1 or so, putting him out of contention for the big prize.
Touch Tone - If the Werner-Durant entry had another race or two into him you could see him developing a nice line, but as it stands now you can't back him with any confidence to improve to be a factor, even a serious exotic factor.
Wake At Noon - The Canuck just reacts too wildly to big efforts, which his last one was. This being said, look for him to bounce back to the Great White North.
Xtra Heat - It would be a great story to see her win it. Runs her guts out every dance. The question is, is this the end of the line? You know Salzman will have her cranked for what could be his last race with her. It seems like normal sheet reading rules just don't apply to an animal as special as this. Have to consider. The 3 pounds is always a help.
Thunderello - I admire Scott Lake for his willingness to give him a shot, but it's just asking too much too soon. Can't expect development off a 5 point top.
My Cousin Matt - Call me crazy, but since the addition of the wraps, he's a new man. Could he be the crazy exotic atomic bomb if he can get back to the 1? With D'Wildcat on the fence, it's possible he could get in.
Maybe I'm missing the boat here, but the logical contenders seem to be Kona Gold, Xtra Heat and possibly Swept Overboard and Disturbingthepeace, making this a race to watch for me. Might have to make a small play using My Cousin Matt in the exotic pools just for action. But you won't see much of my money in this race.
