Michael D.
I may have used poor wording when I said, "I will say the Bris is a lot more indepth than what is being portrayed in here." If it came off as I was comparing the Bris methodology to Thoro, that wasn't the intent.
What I've read from most of the guys who post here is that Bris doesn't factor in as many variables as Thoro, that could be true, however, I'm a total novice regarding Thorograph, but I've been highly successful with the Bris numbers.
I've just never found them lacking in accuracy and I've had a lot of people challenge their figures because of final race times between circuits, etc, but when I break down their numbers, they are always right on the button.
I'm primarily an angle player and I rely on the Bris numbers to indicate the predominant speed in the race and I can quickly visualize the way the race "should" set up.
For example, as I look at the last outs by Big Brown in the Fla Derby and then War Pass in the Wood, this is what I see. War Pass 121/123/71 and a SPD of 99 going the mile and an eighth. Big Brown 107/117/98 and a SPD of 110. On paper, even though those races were on different tracks, at 4F War Pass would be clear by 7 lengths and at 6F he would be clear by 10 lengths and in the stretch Big Brown would pick up 13.5 lengths and finish about 5.5 lengths in front of War Pass, simply because War Pass walked down the lane.
I've also looked at the 1 Mile Allowance race that each of them ran at GP.
In those races, Brown is at 96/105/96 with a SPD of 102 and War Pass was 85/88/110 and a speed of 100. So, on paper at that mile distance on the same track Brown at 4f would be clear by 5.5 lengths, 6f at 14 lengths and during the stretch War Pass would pick up 7 lengths. At the finish, Brown would have run the 1 mile race and won by about 1 length. So, in a nutshell, in looking at a possible Derby scenario, I see (assuming they all break clean which they won't) War Pass going right to the front, (no big revelation) and probably being very difficult to corral for at least the first mile 1/16th or so. I think his collapse in the Wood would make anyone suspicious of him every getting the Mile and a Quarter. We also know, War Pass must have the lead to have even the slightest chance. If he's shuffled back, its all over, whereas Big Brown can get shuffled back and probably still come running.
In those two examples, I'm not concerned with ground loss or post position as will not be the case in the Derby.
I think its likely any horse that sets a couple lengths off War Pass for the first mile will be toast by mid stretch. But, its way to early to make any predictions, but its not a risky comment to say that if War Pass breaks clean, he will go to the front. Period.
I think if Brown decides to hook War Pass early, you can stick a fork in both of them because War Pass has no choice but to be on the front and once he gets passed the connections will know he's toast, so I assume he'll run as hard as he has to, to get the lead and hope they let him get away with soft fractions. Even though War Pass has stopped at the shorter distances, if they let him coast out there in 47.0 or so, it could take awhile to reel him in.
I can elaborate further if you'd like. It's hard to get too detailed without putting people to sleep.
I would entertain any follow ups though.
