Guys,
Determining which horses will or won't move up on surface changes is not as big a mystery as you think. Without insulting anyone's intelligence, distances, race types, surfaces all change, but the one thing that never changes is a horse's pedigree. I think many handicappers have had it handed to them on the Poly, Cushion, Pro Ride and Tapeta because of a variety of reasons, but the #1 reason is simply "assuming" certain high profile sires will throw good runners on any type surface. Nothing could be farther from the truth.
Let me profile some "high profile" sires with some statistics and then you can draw your own conclusions.
Honour and Glory on Cushion at Santa Anita (Oak Tree) meet 1 for 10;
Cee's Tizzy 0 for 20; Tribal Rule 0 for 18.
At Hollywood, Devil His Due 0 for 14; Touch Gold 1 for 24; Menifee 1 for 21;
On Poly, Deputy Minister 9 for 127; Unreal Zeal 2 for 74.
On Cushion only, Cryptoclearance 0 for 19; Devil His Due (repeater) 0 for 17; Dixieland Band 0 for 15; Menifee (repeater) 1 for 21; Real Quiet 0 for 16; Touch Gold (repeater) 1 for 28.
Let me illustrate one sire in particular. Relaunch. He has son's like Cee's Tizzy, Honour and Glory, Skywalker, Bertrando and Bright Launch. Most of this group are well respected, in most cases, guys are gonna assume they can run a little based on their pedigree. The grandsons of Relaunch (Tiznow, Put It Back, Officer) are terrific Poly running producers. They stink on Cushion.
The sons of Relaunch are very good at Cushion, and the grandsons of Relaunch are especially good at producing Poly runners.
Generally, you will find that mares out of Bertrando and Skywalker are excellent on all artificial surfaces, but especially on Cushion.
For those who are unwilling to recognize the differences, it's gonna be impossible for them to ever get a "handle" on how a horse "might" run first time on a different artificial surface.
As I indicated earlier, most of the high profile sires are gonna eat your lunch when you are playing them on the assumption they produce a runner on all artificial surfaces.
Then you come to the Tapeta surface. Now, in my opinion, this one is pretty easy to figure because, with all due respect, your having to outrun horses at the Tapeta track on the east and Golden Gate on the west, without question, a lesser quality group of animals than you're going to see at Keeneland or Arlington or Southern California.
There are a handful of spectacular sires for the Tapeta surface, but I'd rather not disclose who they are in an open forum or my advantage takes a huge hit.
I would be willing to disclose a couple of them to Mr. Brown, if he were willing to consider my suggestion regarding artificials.
I decided a couple years ago rather than to try to fight this unknown monster, i.e. artificial surfaces, I would dedicate 12 hours a day for several months and really get a handle on it. At this point, I'm very confident in which horses are subject to liking the surfaces. Yet, as we all know, the advantage of a particular pedigree goes out the window without the proper intent of the connections. A well-bred Poly horse may not have any talent, and that's out of our control.
Please, please understand that Cushion, Tapeta and Pro Ride are "similar" in the types sires that produce those type runners. Polytrack is a completely different surface from any other type. Comparing Polytrack to the other artificial surfaces is like trying to compare regular dirt to turf, there is little resemblance, although, there are many horses that can crossover and have success. There will always be exceptions, as horseplayers, we all accept that premise. There is no assurance a horse moving from Cushion to Tapeta will run better, or vise versa. There is no assurance a horse moving from Cushion will run good on Poly. It is ALL in the pedigree.
Sorry for the long post. I'll be happy to elaborate further, if there's interest.
