I know that Big Brown has the biggest fig and has been visually impressive leading up to the derby. He moved forward a lot in his last race. I took a look back at the T-Graph figures in the Archives at the last 6 derbies ('02 to '07) at horses that moved forward >4.5 points in their race prior to the derby like Big Brown did.
Here is a list of Horses and their results in the derby (top, pair, off, or x):
Circular Quay: Pair
Tiago: Top
Storm in May: X
Storm Treasure: X
Sinister Minister: X
Afleet Alex: X
Don't Get Mad: Pair
Bellamy Road: X
Greeley's Galaxy: X
Going Wild: X
Indian Express: off
Scrimshaw: off
Ten Most Wanted: off
Friends Lake: x
Castledale: x
The Cliff's Edge: X
Bandini: X
Out of 17 horses, I count:
1 Top
2 Pair's
3 Off's
11 X's
I know that that is not enough to be statistically significant but it is interesting.
