Re: Belmont Stakes 1992-2002 (949 Views)

Chris,
While I too think Funny Cide has a great shot to win the Belmont, last year you posted a really good piece about horses that make big jumps in the Belmont. I will quote from your post last year.

Re: the Derby you said "In the recent past, horses fast enough to have a chance to win rarely made a big jump in the Derby itself...most of the contenders paired up. However, In the Belmont jump ups appear to be more common."
"Here are 4 recent winners that jumped 1.5 pts or more: Point Given (3pts) Commendable (4.5pts) Lemon Drop Kid (1.5pts) and Editors Note (3pts)."
"I looked for some trends among those that jumped up and there were a few but the one constant was a "classic" strong pattern (i.e., pair ups and/or small forward moves)."
You also made a case for some recent top three finishers that "jumped up."
Funny Cide does have the classic pattern although it seems to be faster than most (the exception being Point Given)of the past classic patterns. It will be interesting to see which horses may have that chance to "jump up in the Belmont." Last year you thought that Ess. of Dubai was one of the prototypical jump up horses, however, upon further relflection Sarava also seemed to fit the pattern. I thought his races were too close together to produce a big jump, but with the odds being 70-1 one could have taken a flyer(I unfortunately did not). It will be interesting to see the final entries and apply the "Belmont Jump" priciple to see if there is a long shot winner or a horse at long odds that fits this pattern for the exotics.

Sam