I understand the overall case for Take Charge Indy who, after scratching out of the Tampa Bay Derby, may very well have to win today to guarantee a spot in the big race. With Calvin up, it seems likely on paper that TCI should get to the rail, but I’ll be very surprised if TCI is on the lead early since, as the explanation with race shapes points out, one of the biggest difficulties in trying to project how much speed a particular horse is likely to show is that it often depends on tactical decisions by the jockey. My best guess is that based on what happened the last time he rode the horse, Calvin may very well conclude that he moved too soon, and I’m therefore thinking it’s more likely, with the change of equipment, that Reveron or one of the longshots which have actually been on the lead at the end of the first quarter will be in front early.
It’s also interesting to note that although there was only horse ahead of TCI early in his last race, a 24-1 shot that ended up losing by more than 27 lengths, TCI was nonetheless three wide around the first turn. Putting that information together with how TCI ran when he broke from the one hole and was forced to run on the rail in his CD race has me wondering if perhaps TCI is the kind of horse which does not necessarily like being inside of other horses.
My bottom line is that it all adds up to an awful lot of open questions for a horse which is only 5-1 on the ML, and will probably go off lower than that.
