I mostly agree with your dope HP, with the exception of Hansen. No matter what the track condition is, I’m not sure the pace scenario helps Hansen, who I’m downgrading even more based on Welsch’s report today that he was “rank, aggressive, and hard to handle during just a routine gallop.”
For what it’s worth, perhaps nothing, one of the things I look for when the horses in the Derby are this closely matched is how each horse has dealt with adversity, the theory being that most of the runners are likely to encounter some kind of trouble at some point in what is obviously a unique race. Of the 11 I’ve seen run in person, the ones I think both figure from a handicapping standpoint and have demonstrated that they can handle being roughed up some are Union Rags, Dullahan, and Daddy Nose Best.
If the odds cooperate, I’m going to concentrate my action on those three in the race itself, as well as the Oaks-Derby Double and the Oaks-Woodford-Derby Pk3.
The horse that intrigues me the most for the bottom rung of the exotics is Rousing Sermon, as he reminds me of Mula Gula, another Hollendorfer shipper who ran on the Derby undercard the year FuPeg won. While Hollendorfer’s numbers shipping to KY are high, if memory serves his numbers for Derby Day ships are astronomical, and it seems the less sense the horse makes—to me at least--the more live it is.
