Re: Liason (492 Views)

August 27, 2012 03:01PM
P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> fjmb Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> I just have a different mindset when playing, it's
> all about trying to cash a ticket.


Amen..My job when i'm handicapping is not to control drugs it's to pick the winner based on numbers AND pace breakdown..Trainers also have to be included in your analysis. The 2 day layoff didn't bug me because he did it before and the race on Thursday was not a gut wrencher at all and Dutrow has done it before...Willy may show effects of it at some point or he might not..every horse is different

I was not trying to redboard or piss anyone off I was just responding to Miff's statement that it was a garbage race as if the outcome could not be predicted....This was not Acrcangues in the Breeders cup.. I put my thought process below if anyone's interested. Sheet numbers and Race setup are both equal in my analysis when betting a race. I don't care what kind of number a horse earns. I'm not playing that horse if he is a deep closer in a race that the speed is capable and is going to be loose on the lead. That kind of situation presented itself in the Kings Bishop or so I thought. Forget drugs or anything , it just seemed based on prior performance that Willy had a chance based on both numbers and pace setup.

The pace of the race showed that Trinni and Doctor Chit would be going out for the lead and kill each other up front. Currency Swap would be forwardly placed to not get shuffled back and Gun Boat had blinkers on so he was going to go which compromises both of them. I threw them all off my ticket except Dr. Chit as a backup who was the outside speed and I was worried he would be allowed to relax outside Trini and someone else who might jump out there hard. After that you have Fort Loudon, Laurie's Rocket, Willy BEamin and Ever So lucky as the next fastest in order. Lauries Rocket was switched from Dallas Stewart to D Wayne Lukas so he was a toss for me. Of the rest the only one that seemed to make sense was Unbridled note who was going to be closing and was improving; I just didn't see him as being able to close better than Willy and Fort Loudon.

So I used Fort Loudon, Willy Beamin and Ever So lucky. with Unbridled note and Doctor Chit as my backup. I focus on p4 and p3 plays so when I saw the tri and Super payouts I wanted to bash my head against the closest post but that's how it goes.
Subject Author Posted

Liason (1067 Views)

sekrah August 25, 2012 03:32PM

Re: Liason (749 Views)

TreadHead August 25, 2012 05:10PM

Re: Liason (705 Views)

Lost Cause August 25, 2012 06:44PM

Re: Liason (707 Views)

miff August 25, 2012 08:58PM

Re: Liason (717 Views)

TGJB August 25, 2012 09:18PM

Re: Liason (648 Views)

miff August 25, 2012 09:23PM

Re: Liason (605 Views)

Lost Cause August 25, 2012 09:34PM

Re: Liason (673 Views)

miff August 25, 2012 09:39PM

Re: Liason (486 Views)

Lost Cause August 26, 2012 01:46AM

Re: Liason (555 Views)

jerry August 26, 2012 03:42AM

Re: Liason (483 Views)

Boscar Obarra August 26, 2012 04:45AM

Re: Liason (434 Views)

jerry August 26, 2012 01:56PM

Re: Liason (426 Views)

miff August 26, 2012 02:03PM

Re: Liason (489 Views)

P-Dub August 26, 2012 05:43AM

Re: Liason (392 Views)

jerry August 26, 2012 02:08PM

Re: Liason (429 Views)

fjmb August 26, 2012 05:49PM

Re: Liason (440 Views)

miff August 26, 2012 06:26PM

Re: Liason (398 Views)

Rick B. August 26, 2012 06:43PM

Re: Liason (483 Views)

fjmb August 26, 2012 06:44PM

Re: Liason (398 Views)

miff August 26, 2012 07:03PM

Re: Liason (391 Views)

Boscar Obarra August 26, 2012 07:19PM

Re: Liason (370 Views)

Rick B. August 26, 2012 07:58PM

Re: Liason (358 Views)

P-Dub August 26, 2012 08:09PM

Re: Liason (388 Views)

fjmb August 26, 2012 08:51PM

Re: Liason (499 Views)

P-Dub August 26, 2012 08:55PM

Re: Liason (492 Views)

Lost Cause August 27, 2012 03:01PM

Re: Liason (542 Views)

tmon August 31, 2012 01:25PM

Re: Liason (588 Views)

jerry August 25, 2012 09:49PM

Re: Liason (574 Views)

fjmb August 25, 2012 10:12PM

Re: Liason (611 Views)

TreadHead August 25, 2012 10:47PM

Re: Liason (611 Views)

MonmouthGuy August 25, 2012 11:18PM

Re: Liason (630 Views)

jerry August 25, 2012 11:24PM

Re: Liason (496 Views)

Lost Cause August 26, 2012 01:50AM

Re: Liason (484 Views)

Topcat August 26, 2012 01:58AM

Re: Liason (475 Views)

moosepalm August 26, 2012 02:02AM

Re: Liason (536 Views)

jimbo66 August 26, 2012 02:06AM

Re: Liason (584 Views)

P-Dub August 26, 2012 03:26AM

Re: Liason (443 Views)

moosepalm August 26, 2012 02:04PM

Re: Liason (423 Views)

P-Dub August 26, 2012 03:59PM

Re: Liason (543 Views)

TGJB August 26, 2012 04:01PM

Re: Liason (465 Views)

P-Dub August 26, 2012 04:18PM

Re: Liason (526 Views)

P-Dub August 26, 2012 05:41PM



Sorry, only registered users may post in this forum.

Click here to login