Look this is the tightest Derby I've seen in a long, long time. The hardest part of it will be figuring who will regress the most and who will be around at the finish when that happens to them. Horses that seem to me to be the most likely to regress (in order) are Goldencents, Will Take Charge, IMLD, Mylute, Revolutionary and Golden Soul.
The two who have had the fastest previous races in the regress category are Goldencents and IMLD. If they don't drop too much they can figure in the verticals. However, neither of them has been trained very hard, which suggests to me that their trainers are worried about tightening the screws too much.
Horses coming in on good patterns are Orb, Normandy, Overanalyze, Vyjack, and Verrazano (marginally.) The difference between these five is VERY SLIGHT and the rest of this field just seems to be too slow to jump up over any in either of these two categories.
That's the way I see it.
As for the fillies, there are three that are moving in a direction that suggests to me that Dreaming of Julia won't have it easy. Apart from the likelihood that she will regress, Unlimited Budget, Midnight Lucky and Close Hatches are all eligible to beat her. If she bounces big time, she may not hit the board.
