I think the time is secondary to the way the race was run. Slow fractions and Mub was just off the pace, the Derby will be way faster. If they force the horse (if he can) closer to the pace, what does he have left when they get to the stretch?
American Pharoah cruised in by a wide margin and nobody knows how much faster he might have come home had a horse been 1/4 length off and pushing. Faster, maybe quite a bit faster.
It might be a result of a weak field in Dubai, but Mub has instant acceleration, that might be as a result of the two horses in front of him having nothing left. He also runs on the wrong lead in the stretch, so that's not a good thing. By some chance, if he suddenly changes leads, he probably has another gear or two.
He looks like he will definitely get the distance unless the jockey has to force him along into a fast pace and empties him a lot earlier than normal.
He's had that really long trip, then the van from Arlington just to get to the venue. How much did that take out of him? DeKock, the trainer thinks very little since he is used to shipping 12-16 hours in a van to get somewhere.
The horse hasn't been on his normal diet since he left Dubai, that should make some difference.
Art Sherman (Chrome) said the surface is similar to Churchill and the horse has had no issue with kickback. The trainer confirms that. Sherman also said Mub was the real deal. Could be trainer talk.
I'm intrigued cause the horse never trains with shoes on so that's a positive. DeKock said he never works Mub in company cause he is way too competitive. DeKock also said Mub is a superstar. Take it for what its worth.
I think the fractions in that race in relationship to the fractions on Saturday are of little importance.
Mub may run up the track, he may be a factor. If you like him, play him, if not then exclude him.
Unless the jockey really misjudges the pace this horse is gonna run forever. If he switches leads out of the blue and he's within range, he's represents a threat.
I told my wife, if this horse gets a decent trip he is really gonna be running at the finish line, problem is there may be a half dozen horses already there waiting on him. LOL
Total guess on my part where he fits.
TG of 3 was a small improvement while under wraps, failure to switch leads, who knows maybe he already run his best race, maybe he has a lot more.
No Lasix. At 10/1 or so I'll use him in some exotics, but I'm using lots of others too. He's a likely underlay. If he happens to run big, people will start referring to him by his real name. LOL
I'm glad the horse is in the race, adds some extra chatter and with AP getting a ton of ink it just creates a bit more excitement.
I think DeKock knows he's a good one among a bunch of other good ones.
I'll just wager my opinion.
Good luck.
