Fairmount,
I think sort of dovetails into a little bit of mjellish explained in how he structures wagers.
I'm using the last 15 superfectas in the Kentucky Derby to see if this helps anyone. I'll start with 2014 and work down to 2000, and I'm using the $ 1.00 superfecta payoff.
2014. Favorite Chrome at 3/1 wins. Super is 3-1,38-1,9-1,7-1 and pays
$ 7500.00. There is a 9/1 that misses the super. Pool is $ 11.5M
2013. Favorite is Orb at 5/1 wins. Super is 5-1,35-1,6-1,9-1 and pays
$28,500.00. There is a 9-1/10-1/8-1 that miss the super. Pool is $ 11.2M
2012. Favorite Bode runs 2nd at 4/1. IHA wins at 15-1,4-1,12-1,31-1 and pays
$ 48,000.00. A 5-1/8-1 miss the super. Pool is $ 10.9M
2011. Favorite Dialed In runs out at 5-1. AK wins at 21-1,9-1,9-1,23-1 and pays $ 24,000.00. A 5-1, 8-1, 10-1 miss the super. Pool is $ 9.9M
2010. Favorite LaLucky runs out at 6-1. S. Saver wins at 8-1,12-1,12-1,30-1 and pays $101,000.00. A 6-1, 10/1 miss the super. Pool is $ 8.5M
2009. Favorite Friesen Fire runs out at 4-1. MTB wins at 51-1,6-1,19-1,12-1 and pays $ 278.000.00 A 5-1, 4-1 miss the super. Pool is $ 8.0M
2008. Favorite BBrown wins at 2-1. BB wins at 2-1, 13-1,27-1,37-1 and pays
$ 29,000.00. A 5-1, 6-1 miss the super. Pool is $9.0M
2007. Co-Fav. *S. Sense wins at 5-1, 10-1, Curlin at 5-1, 29-1 and pays
$ 14,500.00. A 7-1 misses the super. Pool is $ 9.0M
2006. Favorite is SNSaint runs out at 5-1. Barbaro wins at 6-1,30-1,8-1,DH with 24-1 and 7-1 and pays $ 44,000.00 and $ 30,000.00. Pool is $ 8.7M
2005. Favorite B.Road runs out at 2.60-1. Gia wins at 50-1,72-1,5-1,29-1 and pays $ 864,000.00. Bellamy road misses at 2.60-1, and (2) 7-1. Pool is $ 7.4M
2004. Fav. Smarty wins at 4-1, 2nd choice L.Heart at 5-1,11-1,42-1 and pays
$ 20,500.00. An 8-1, 6-1 miss the super. Pool is $ 5.3M
2003. Fav Em. Maker 2nd at 2.50-1. F. Cide wins at 13-1, 2.50-1,6-1,9-1 and pays $ $ 2,800.00. A 7-1,6-1 miss the super. Pool is $ 4.9M
2002. Fav. H. Holiday out at 6-1. War Emblem wins at 21-1,23-1,8-1,7-1 and pays
$ 91,500.00. An 8-1,6-1,8-1,7-1 miss the super. Pool is $ 4.0M
2001. Fav P. Given out at 1.80-1. Monarchos wins at 11-1,55-1,7-1,25-1 and pays
$ 63,000.00. An 8-1,10-1,8-1,7-1 miss the super. Pool is $ 3.3M
2000. Fav Fu Peg wins at 2-1. Fu Peg at 2-1,12-1,6-1,11-1 and pays $ 1,600.00
An 8-1,10-1,6-1,5-1, field entry 6-1 miss the super. Pool is $ 2.6M
(**Absolutely no guarantees I didn't transpose a number or two. If a mistake is made it is purely an oversight on my part.
6 of 15 Betting Favorites won. 2 Betting Favorites ran 2nd. 7 Betting Favorites failed to hit the super.
Do with this what you like. I think it says despite the difficulty in hitting the super its a play any handicapper has to take some shots at. Looks like there will be $ 11-12M in that super pool, so I don't think anyone gets cheated if they hit it.
Good luck
