If Ocho Ocho Ocho goes wire to wire in this field, I'm gonna need a paper shredder. With equal posts, I see at least 7-8 horses that will outrun him to the turn.
In looking at the last 10 Derby races, there's not much to glean. I do notice that Kent D has shipped near the front twice with Brown and Stormello, not in the lead but within the top 4 at the turn.
Martin Garcia shipped to the front twice for Baffert with Chitu and Conveyance.
Castellanos in the top 5 on both Gemologist and Discreetly Mine.
Victor Espinoza way back on Sinister Minister and last year with Chrome.
Johnny V was near the front with Cowboy Cal and Verrazano.
Mike Smith shipped on top with both Palice Malice and Bode.
Luis Saez has been in the top 6 at the 2f call on both Falling Sky and Wildcat Red last year.
Leparoux with Cool Coal Man and Sedgfield, but that was 6-7 years ago.
Bejarano shipped with both Papa Clem and another one I don't remember in 2010.
We all know post draw, speed trapped on the inside, getting out clean can make or break half the field. Just last year I think there were about 8-10 trouble calls right out of the gate.
Just because a trainer is planning to ship doesn't mean the horses on the inside or outside don't bear in or out like last year with Wicked Strong.
I think Dortmund, Upstart, Materiality, Pharoah, Firing Line, Bolo, and a couple others are likely to be somewhere in the top 4-5 on the turn unless they have trouble when the bell rings. I doubt any of them would turn down the trip if they accidentally landed on the lead.
The horses in the second flight have a great shot to run big if a couple of tigers tie into each other at a real brisk pace. Its a total crap shoot and I couldn't take issue with anyone who has an opposing view.
I think most years, most jockeys will tell you its just a scramble out of the gate, try to secure some kind of path into the turn and then get straightened away on the backside before the horse and jockey can even take a relaxed breath.
The constant I've used is which 5 are likely to be where they should be heading into the first turn and that's usually the 5-6 slowest breaking horses. At least they can start positioning and trying to pick off horses and still try to run their race.
This is probably my least favorite Derby in 10-15 years to wager on. So many good ones and even most of the 2nd tier horses are dangerous. Gonna take a helluva horse to win this thing. I'm always mindful that 16 damn good 3 year olds aren't even gonna make the super. Looks awful tough to me, but I'm taking my shots regardless.
Sorry for the whining.
