Jim,
Great, honest comments once again. One of the really intriguing things about this or any Derby is the hand-wringing leading up to the draw, and then the elation or misery when a key horse is impacted negatively.
With me, ignorance is bliss. I watch the start of the Derby every year, and this year will likely follow the same pattern.
The connections are giving instructions to the riders...get out clean, don't get shuffled back, hustle the horse out, don't get caught wide, don't move too early, blah, blah, blah.
Then the gate opens and 2-3 areas of the gate collapse in or out, that horse that needed to be on the front end is buried in 14th place 5 steps out of the gate, and the horse that can't get the distance is wide on the turn. In 30 seconds you know your goose is already cooked
The reason my ignorance on post position is bliss, the gate opens and bad things normally happen.
Its like the great American Philosopher Mike Tyson once said, "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."
That's how I approach it.
Have a great one!! I plan to!!