Frank,
I call TAP the energy vampire. He fires up the troops all the way through the preps, makes all other good 3 year olds run their eyeballs out in order to collect enough points to make it to the Big Dance.
I looked at 3 of the major prep races and how the horses that emerged had performed in the Derby, and its pretty dismal.
From 2011 through yesterday, only a small 5 year sample, but it makes you wonder why people get all goo goo about some of these final prep races.
GP 14 Derby entrants, 1 win, 0 places, 0 shows, one 4th. 12 of 14 (86%) of horses miss the board in the Derby.
KEE 18 Derby entrants. 0 wins, 0 places, 1 show, 0 4th's. 17 of 18 (94%)of horses miss the board in the Derby.
AQU 11 Derby entrants. 0 wins, 0 places, 0 shows, 3 4th place finishers. 8 of 11 (73%) of horses miss the board in the Derby.
COMBINED GP/KEE/AQU. 43 horses, 1 win (Orb), 0 places, 1 show, 4 4th place finishes. 37 of 43 (86%) of horses from these 3 major preps miss the board in the Derby.
I know its cyclical, but 3 of the last 4 winners from the West Coast.
