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Thoro-Graph
Dortmund and Firing line very close earlier. Dortmund hasn't progressed. Imo he needs front end bias,concrete type dirt racetrack.Fwiw ground loss imo is an excuse most time than not.A real( hate using this term)"classy" horse can handle many surfaces/adjust running style somewhat.
Re Frosted: Somewhat subjective and based on how well he ran visually and figuratively after the s
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Flighted Iron
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Miff,
If you're speaking about a "better" wager vs. actual measured ability then
i might be inclined to agree/disagree depending on odds. Gambling is speculation and race dynamics certainly can be abstract. Speed types don't always make the lead and closers don't always lose ground/get stopped.
Firing line,Upstart and Frosted all tied for 2nd best imo. Dortmund so
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Guess he's top 5-6 of 3yr olds at this point but he needs help up front, me thinks.
Miff,
Aside from AP who are the 3-4 that are better?
flighted
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Flighted Iron
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Fraud-sted was ok
Read all your posts. get a kick out of many.I admire your straighforward dissension towards the political garbage and misdirection.However,Frosted imo
is a whole bunch better than ok.In fact,imo he's a serious racehorse with serious racetrack spirit.Btw,he's real fast on mostly everyone's stuff.
Belmont Stakes: Having the ability to "run all day".
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Flighted Iron
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see"power surge" thread from this board.someone quoted an article by Welsch from DRF.com
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Flighted Iron
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Would venture a guess some think a horse or two or three..
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Flighted Iron
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First look was at Preakness chart compared to TG. neg 1.25 is what it looks to be.
Secondly,it's very difficult to quantify the Preakness racetrack so each of us is going to supplement differently.
I could ask you if you've ever spent months on the Pimlico backstretch followed by long days of handicapping at said track.Rainy days,cold days,cold
rainy days,warm rainy windy days...
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Flighted Iron
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Calculate is more appropriate.yesterday would require some projection.
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Flighted Iron
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I hope the product I am paying 25 bucks for uses a SLIGHTLY different methodology.
Good one!! I do not make figures.I've been using them for a time now.without question the most informative.I do like to within reason project what a figure
may come back prior to getting the sheets before the horse/horses race again.
No idea what "like pimlico" means, no idea how u can deter
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Flighted Iron
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Shorter answer: Had to project,however I'm leaning in favor of the neg 1.25-
Spacing between DR worked well off DR's last.
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Flighted Iron
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Good question. Your response to ringato(separation to diving rod)made the neg
1.25 logical,however track speed quantification is sketchy.Did the math on a selected race from another day with somewhat similar track conditions.Distance of said race was 9f and the horse received a 2 in winning.
internal fractions of preakness were faster than said race so i adjusted with
projection.Actually would
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Looked at the chart and have it a neg 1.25 and with the possibility of it being 1.5 points slower.No kidding and not taking a cheap shot. With the massive change in track are you somewhat inclined to vary the figure?
Thanks,
Flighted Iron
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No shot Upstart gets a 1 1/4 against BC Classic caliber animals.
Jbelfior,
Personally i'm going to need more to convince me in an argument other
than "caliber"/"classy".At the ripe age of 19 i used to laugh at the old timers(then probably my age now)when they'd consider a horse usable in light
of his/her caliber or classiness while on the then sheets the ho
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The "thank you" was/is genuine for the Oaks. There was/is a joke there as well.Funny is a matter a taste.
As far as the question re 80/20: I think it was/is a fair question.It's not a personal attack.
Thanks,
Flighted iron
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That aside, everyone knock it off. Funny is better
Great oaks call!! I must admit during the stretch run and after the race i was
a bit shook up. Thank you! Thank you very much!
I found i do middle road better so...
What plans do you have for the preakness seminar if you're only 80% on the derby numbers? multiple patterns for same horses?
Thanks,
Flighted Iron
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"AP struck many many times"
they were full bore right handed pops. Top 3 finishers emptied out pretty hard.
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I suppose it's how a person interprets "over the top". A matter of perspective. Agreed it was not a neg 2. Ground loss calculations will determine whether it's a slight off race or a slower pair( imo).
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Mat/upstart/carpe diem/tencender/frosted,etc
Were all cranked to run big in final prep and were way over the top by derby week
Frosted over the top??? Watched the race 3 times,read your post , and went back and watched twice more. Over the top??
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Re:Bolo
probably paired with all the ground loss. Real nice horse! early foot and great quicks off the turn. 2 path stalking type going a mile on the weeds combined with his quicks,he'd be a bear to run down in the lane. Already have
some nice "Black type" on dirt. Don't see the point of Churchill Downs.
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The most important point TGJB made re:wind was/is "during the race". Wind gusts,lays down and changes direction. How can this be calculated with precision after the fact. Would the rider be cognizant of the wind's effects
at every moment during the race/or significant moments of the race? Certainly
a headscratcher!
Imo re: Frosted
Having surgery was monumental. If he hadn&
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Want to make very clear my posts weren't intended to denigrate anyone. More to the point of how difficult it can be to win a race,let alone a BC race.
Great sport.Started working on the backside in '84,but Bowie tellers were taking
my action at a tender 15.
Best of luck and good handicapping to all.
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Flighted Iron
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Nafzger 11%
Gosden 13%
Head 42%( ahem,Goldikova)
Miff,
does she qualify as freak of freaks?
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Flighted Iron
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the post wasn't about form cycles. more to the point of having good fortune on
one's side versus HOF ability.
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Flighted Iron
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Fairmount,
An impartial look at trainer's stats for the BC
Trainers < 10% win:
Whittingham
Frankel
Zito
Mclaughlin
Van Berg
Schulhofer
Cecil
O'Brien
Fabre
Attfield
many more hovering close to 10%
Notables with 0% win
Stephens
Jerkens
Jones(gary)
Hannon
Delp
Sadler
Clement
Mitchell
Barrera
Head(christiane)
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Flighted Iron
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Apparently the rule was changed?
re:orb
the chamber sounds familiar. not sure though
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Flighted Iron
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TGJB,
They stated ESWT used for "back" problems. Scratched from Belmont due to tendonitis in front left. Sounds a bit opaque??
Flighted iron
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Miff,
RCI referred to the list as an "ineligible" list. No racing or training within 10 days of treatment. FL workout tab since Feb 7 race.
Horse Name Date Track Dist Time Surf Cond. B/H
Firing Line 03/15/2015 SA 5F :59.80 Dirt Fast H
03/08/2015 SA 5F 1:00.80 Dirt Fast H
02/27/2015 SA 5F :59.60 Dirt Fast H
02/21/2015 SA 4F :48.20 Di
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Miff,
Re: ESWT
Do you know when FL received ESWT therapy?
Thanks,
flighted iron
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www.allhorseracing.ag/kentuckyderby-odds‎CachedSimilar
Dannyboy135,
Presuming these are current.
Flighted
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