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Thoro-Graph
Just because he got a -3.3 no one said he was a superstar, now if he does it 3 or 4 more times, then me might just be the next great thing of his time. Unless the pace of a race is crazy fast, I don't think it really matters. I say if a horse is going to run it's top that day he'll run it. How many times have we all seen horses run crazy fast early times and still hold on, or horse
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kev
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Yes, their top choice ran 3rd, but the two they thought were tough ran 1-2. I guess you could look at it certain ways.
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kev
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BAM !!! I bet her to win, had a all and her in the ex's and had a light her and all in the ex's.............I didn't play the tri. I couldn't get over the tri 1,999.00 with the 5 running 3rd. Thank ya.
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kev
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I'm going with SWEET TALKER 15-1ml also GORELLA 5-1ml has a shot. ST just the fact she got back to her top ( 1/4 pt move forward ) I like her maybe to run the best race of her young life.
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kev
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The thing with Borego number for TG is you could go either way, I might look at it and say well he looks to pair that -3.3 in the BC and then bounce off of it the 2nd time he runs it, or some could say he might bounce coming into the BC. I only have Borrego sheet for Rag's coming up to AUG 21 race at DMR.....before that he had a 2+ I don't know what they gave him in that race....and for
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kev
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Cong, time to get ready for the BC big betting day and take some time study the sheets that TG has on this site in the archives, to see if they make any sense to you. I have certain lines I look for good and bad. Also when sheet reading it's not always about picking whose going to run well, it's also about picking whose going to run bad, that might be one thing I do better and sometimes
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kev
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Someone ask the other day about pattern's......This is all BC horses for the past 6 years. Some might say, yes it's easy now to say this after the fact, but it's basic sheet reading 101 for most of these. Their the fav's in all BC races. Let me start with the horses that looked to run off their tops and basic sheet 101 reading. Some might say different, please let's here
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kev
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Horses coming into the BC with back to back neg. number's ( New Tops--Pair ups ) and running within 2 month's of the BC race, from the last number.Dirt only.
GHOSTZAPPER: Had the two -6.2 ended up running a -4.2 and still won.
APPTITUDE: Two -2.0 coming in and bounced to a 1.3 running 8th at odds of 2-1.
DELAWARE TOWNSHIP: Two -2.1 coming in BC race, ran a 0.3 running 6th odds
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kev
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For dirt races only: P= Pair, 0= off, T= top, X= Bad bad race
for horses coming off tops. For this time of the year Sep-Nov.
%top %pair %off %X
5yr 0-0-T 17 24 28 30
3yr P-P-T 26 27 26 22
3yr X-P-T 18 24 29 29
3yr 0-0-T 20 22 33 26
4yr P-X-T 16 21 27 35
4yr X-X-T 16 20 26 39
3yr X
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kev
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See I thought she was good to go and run the -1.2 again, I bet the race before it came up and only added her in my ex.'s. Love to see the number she got. I'm thinking another -1.2
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kev
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See I told ya it was a nice betting race, I just didnt cash. Wow they and me let PP go off at what 7-1, fastest horse in the race, like I said I bet she'll pair up and run another -1.2 and will bounce in the BC if she runs. I had the 1st and 3rd place runners with my key who ran 4th.
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kev
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I'm going to take a shot with BENDING STRINGS 12-1ml.......Pampered Princess looks to pair up that big -1.2 and if my horse doesnt run well, I hope PP does pair up the neg. number so she'll take some money on BC day and play against her.
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kev
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Nice betting race this one will be. Anybody have any insights on this race??
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kev
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I'm going with again another slower horse, but he looks like he might be ready to push forward in here. AD VALOREM.
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kev
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MED CUP - 18 years ago
I'm going with a horse who is a little slower and has a outside post ( 8 ) boy what I'm I thinking. Anyways I like ROYAL ASSAULT 8-1.....I like the way this horse is starting to come into his own. I think he's soild to run another 2, but he might run a 0 also.
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kev
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I'm typing in pattern's right now into Excel and see which ones stand out.
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kev
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One more thing, for pair ups you all use 1pt either way right?? If so why not atless use a 1/2pt?? Maybe run some test and see if they still hold up with the 1pt %...........Thanks..............
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kev
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Jerry or Alan.......after a couple of years now having the TP on your sheets, what are your thoughts on it?? Like do you guys use it in capping races?? Also what's one of the pattern's that has a high % of tops or pair ups?? For ex. a 3yr sep-nov a pair-pair-pair hits at a 29% for tops and 36% for pair, that's damn good right there.
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kev
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Also ask question about horses lines on here before the race and maybe someone could help ya. Here's another thing I do when using the sheets, I buy a racing form, for the tracks I like playing and I pick out the races that look to be playable. For ex. if there's a turf race and more than 2 horses have never ran on it I won't play the race or I don't play alot of baby races on
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kev
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Well someone is doing something right using the sheets and TG.....alot of contest winners are TG users and alot of the big players use the sheets, along with trainers to buy horses. I've been down the road where I use alot of different types of products and over the years I keep coming back to TG and The Sheets, I've had some of by biggest payout's using these products. My thought
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kev
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So let's see SUAVE could be a horse ready to run big maybe in his next start. On the other hand he's moved alot over his life. BORREGO could go either way, I couldnt count how many times I've seen horses run that big number and then pair it up and then the 3rd race bounce, like F.ALLEY did in his last race. BORREGO is the real deal.
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"Woke Up Dreamin, a two-time grade II winner who was enjoying his best season yet, was retired from racing following an unplaced effort in the Oct. 1 Vosburgh Stakes (gr. I) at Belmont Park." This from bloodhorse.com
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kev
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Do you guys have any more old BC cards, that could be put up? Thanks.
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kev
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3 min's to post, has anyone said anything about FLOWER ALLEY line?? The back to back -2.2's, he might bounce today and will be a nice fav. to beat.
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kev
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I'm calling it right now, I hope ASHADO number comes back a -1.3, if so she looks to back off that number and she will be a low price on BC day.
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kev
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Heres a question about SCRAPPY T.........you have a horse who just ran 2nd to the hottest 3yr in the land and you lay him off for 17 weeks.....Was he hurt?? If not why so long coming back, they might be using this weaker race to see where they stand.
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kev
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Damn man have you been reading my thoughts, those are some of the horses I like today. Let me go down the line.
Bel:
Race 6: I'M THE TIGER 10-1
Race 7: I really don't care for any of their lines, but I'll pick someone for the hell of it.........HAPPY TICKET 8-1
Race 8: METEOR STORM 8-1......ACE looks very tough.
Race 9: IMPERIALISM 8-1........also SUN KING looks good.
Race
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kev
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See I'm going to go with Thor's Echo something seems like the right time now for him to push forward. So. Africa at 6-1 is a nice play, I don't know if those odds will hold up. I really don't like Don't GM I think he backs off that 1.3, just cause its close to his top and the fact he didnt get back to it. It's sort of like a 0-X-2. Scrappy T I just don't know, h
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