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Thoro-Graph
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Any opinions on whether Mendelssohn will regress off that huge TG fig and, if so, by how much? Does the addition of Lasix mitigate a regression? Haven't seen this discussed much by the Thorographers.
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dsipes
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So, by Thorograph analysis and your experience, it's better not to make SUBSTANTIAL improvement from 2yo to 3yo because it leaves room for improvement in 3yo season? And usually does show improvement?
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dsipes
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Interesting. What's your thoughts about their 2yo into 3yo season?
Midnight went from 10 to 8 in 2yo season to paired 5's in her first two starts in 3yo season. This tells me (a novice) that she's capable of getting some real improvement in her figs by 2 to 3 points.
Whereas, Monomony had 4.3 to 5.2 in 2yo season then paired those 3's in her 3yo season, which says to m
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dsipes
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Question for discussion regarding Monomoy Girl vs. Midnight Bisou. Which pattern do you guys like to see coming in to The Oaks: Monomoy's matching 3's in her last two races; or Midnight Bisou's subtle progression from 5 to 3.2 in her last two races? Hoping for some analysis from you guys/gals.
For what it's worth, in the Sire Profiles for both fillies, looks like Midnigh
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dsipes
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Quip - 6 years ago
Just wondering if TGJB still feels Quip likely to bounce next weekend with an extra week rest???
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dsipes
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Does anybody else think that this year's Bluegrass was very similar to last year's Santa Anita Derby where Battle of Midway (Flameaway) did all the dirty work only to have Gormley (Good Magic) rally to get up? I think Flameaway could be like BOM and make the KD tri and super valuable like BOM did last year, especially if Flameaway draws a better inside post in KD. A lot of similariti
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dsipes
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Last three TG figs.... -4.2, 5.2, 9. Has this been seen by anyone before? Is there anyone who believes he won't regress? I guess argument could be made that even if he regresses slightly, he's still a major contender.
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dsipes
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I think of you got to know Derek, you'd really like him and maybe appreciate his work. Maybe not. To his his own. But he's a good dude and good for our industry. Big guy too. Someone you'd want having your back if things got bad for you in a bar one night :)
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dsipes
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Impact value: 1.00 is the average. Anything less than 1.00 means you're winning at less than the average and anything greater than 1.00 you're winning more than average. In short, you want to see numbers above 1.00 and not see numbers less than 1.00. On the last page of every Brisnet past performance, they give impact values for which running style and post positions are doing best
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dsipes
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I encourage all of you to get on Twitter or Facebook and search DEREK SIMON, who's a very astute capper and wrote a profile yesterday for US RACING on Mendelssohn. Derek created his own measurement of energy in a race known as EARLY SPEED RATION, which looks at the amount of energy a horse used early in a race. Same scale as Thorograph (the lower the better --- a -15 is superior to a 0).
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dsipes
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dsipes Wrote:
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> Interesting Transylvania at Keeneland after the
> draw. The favorite ANALYZE IT drew horribly --
> Post 12 (just 4 for 92 since 2001) -- and
> Pletcher's horse MARAUD didn't do a lot better
> with the rail. CAPTIVATING MOON looks real
> interesting with a grest post draw, bad trip note
&g
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dsipes
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Interesting Transylvania at Keeneland after the draw. The favorite ANALYZE IT drew horribly -- Post 12 (just 4 for 92 since 2001) -- and Pletcher's horse MARAUD didn't do a lot better with the rail. CAPTIVATING MOON looks real interesting with a grest post draw, bad trip note in last, and super good trainer angle. In his last at Tampa (the Columbia Stakes), he got shut off inside in
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dsipes
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The analysis on Strike Power was persuasive. I'm new to TG and learning. I went with Audible for the following reasons. Audible was a 1 last out like Strike Power so that told me they were the two fastest horses in the race. Those 1's were Tops and Audible had more time off to recover. But their running styles and post positions helped me make the choice. SP in Post 1 was going to g
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dsipes
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Anybody get Mendelsohn's fractions? Thought I heard race caller say he went first quarter in 25.
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dsipes
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Ideally, doesn't Runaway Ghost need a 4.2 (no worse than 5.2) TG FIG or lower to be in conversation of win candidate??
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dsipes
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Would anyone happen to have the sheets for Kentucky Oaks winners from 2005 back to 2000 or earlier? I can't open the archive video on my computer. If any of you have the sheets and are generous enough to share, my email is dsipes@bbtel.com. Thanks and best wishes to all.
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dsipes
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Anything about Battle of Midway's TG pattern anyone wishes to discuss that is educational for future use?
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dsipes
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Your analysis is really helpful and fascinating. The type of content I need to learn.
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dsipes
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Interesting also that the THORO-PATTERN stats for Stellar Wind's pattern showed that pattern was likely to result in an X fig (more than 4 point) was probably accurate as well despite everyone telling me to ignore THORO-PATTERN because it's for beginners and those Thoro-Pattern stats are results of all different kinds/quality of horses with that same pattern. My post-mortum BC analysis
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dsipes
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I began a thread on Stellar Wind on here before Breeders Cup suggesting her TG figs of "all 0's" this year suggested she had peaked last year. Looks as if that pattern theory was correct albeit she had a bad post on the inside. Nevertheless, SW ran an awful last place finish. Can I assume TG will use her pattern in the future as a sign of their suggestion in the seminar: "i
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dsipes
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Anybody having trouble loading the seminar on their Apple IPhone? When I hit the download button, it takes me to a PDF file and I can't upload the video. Any suggestions would be helpful as I want to listen to the seminar again on the plane tomorrow to California.
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dsipes
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I completely agree with you. I just want to make sure I understand Thoro-Pattern correctly. It's stats for a particular pattern. It's stats, not certainty. But if a certain pattern gets 31% top and 36% pair next out, that at least tells me it's a strong pattern. Correct? If so, all I've inquired about is if Thoro Pattern is also applicable or useful when handicapping upc
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dsipes
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Not following you. It's my understanding thoro-pattern gives the results of other horses to date (same age, same time period)with the same pattern and gives you the results of their TG fig. It seems like you're saying, Yes tjoro-patteren gives you the stats for similar situations, but I just don't believe it in this situation."
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dsipes
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Do we need to pre-register, prepay? Never been through the process but looking very forward to it.
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dsipes
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I ask again to all on this site: How important are the Thoro-Pattern stats to your Breeders Cup handicapping? Historically, have the stats held up? Thank you in advance.
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dsipes
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Question: HOw much emphasis should one give to the THORO-PATTERN statistics for Breeders Cup entrants??? Thank you.
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dsipes
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