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Thoro-Graph
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Appreciate your insight. What about Lady Aurelia strikes you as odd?
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dsipes
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I believe she had a race or two this year where she didn't win by much which suggests she had to be all out. Of she had 0's and was winning by 3-5 lengths, maybe I could understand. But if she's all out and getting 0's, shouldn't that be a concern she can't get back to those lower figs from last year?
by
dsipes
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Ask the Experts
The only point I can respectfully disagree with you on is the -4 being the cause of Stellar Wind performing poorly in the Distaff last year. Wouldn't most agree that the real reason was her atrocious start out of the gate? No way she could compete with Songbird and Beholder after that start.
by
dsipes
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Interested in discussion/thoughts about Stellar Wind, whose TG figs in her 5yo year have surprised me. Looks like she reached her peak as 4yo. All 0's this year and the Thoro Pattern stats say it's a 71% chance she throws an X in the Distaff. Not only this but she's never won at 9 furlongs and 60+ day layoffs in the Distaff are just 2 for 33. Big time vulnerable favorite?????
by
dsipes
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Seems to me Paulasilverlining race two back would be more accurate of her true nature where she had the same type of pace she'll get in the FM Sprint. But, unsure if TG recommends doing that.
by
dsipes
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Looking for some TG opinions. Regardless of the TG figs that come out, should the figs for the fillies and mares that ran in the Ballerina prep be ignored or given less emphasis due to the slow fractions in that race and how weird that race was run? To me, it's not a race I want to give a lot a credence too. Any opinions? For example, Paulassilverlining.
by
dsipes
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Will it be announced on this FORUM LIST when the TG Sheets for the pre-entries will be available for purchase? And when the Seminar will be? Thank you.
by
dsipes
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Can't disagree with anything you've said. Richard Migliore said in the last couple of days that Practical Joke is more likely to go in the Sprint (one turn) vs. Dirt Mile based on his last workout.
by
dsipes
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I'd say LADY AURELIA & MARSHA have to be your A horses in the Turf Sprint with Disco Partner and Pure Sensation your B's pending the TG sheets and Seminar.
by
dsipes
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Watched all the archives, love it and I'm going to use TG heavily this year. Didn't know pointing out a speed fig stat was unfavored and prohibited here. Won't happen again.
by
dsipes
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Nobody said I was not going to consider the context. Just thought it was an interesting stat that only 6 horses since 1984 have won Classic off lifetime sPEED FIGURE top in last race. If a BC entrant ran a TG 14 two races ago and a negative 2 in his last prep (that negative 2 being the best in its life), would it be a "fools errand" to believe that horse may very likely regress when
by
dsipes
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Just to clarify, I said SPEED figure, not Thiro-Graph figure
by
dsipes
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Through 2016, only six horses have won the Classic when they posted a lifetime top speed figure in last prep. This year, the following posted lifetime tops in last prep race: collected (double tops), Diversify (double tops), Gunnevera, Gun Runner, Mubtaahij, & Pavel. Gun Runner also posted triple digit early & late pace figs in his last for the first time ever. Very vulnerable favorite
by
dsipes
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Good call on La Coronel & DLD. Couldn't support New Money HOney with that Post 11. Terrible post for turf routes at Keeneland.
by
dsipes
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I doubt anyone can show 20 years of positive ROI. His model has been very successful at previous Breeders Cups. I know his model doesn't jive with the model(s) you use, but it doesn't mean his model is flawed. Respectfully.
by
dsipes
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FWIW, heard Castellano will be riding West Coast for Baffert. Any opinions on this?
by
dsipes
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Wouldn't most of you agree these turf sprint races are chaotic plain and simple? Not sure the impact or post position winning percentages for 5f turf races at Del Mar, which I think would be critical to any analysis.
I'll likely spread in the horizontal wagers and use all horses that ran between a 0.3 up to a 2 in their final prep as A horses and my B horses will consist of those
by
dsipes
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Ask the Experts
Not real sure about that respectfully. Handicapper Jim Mazur aka Progressive Handicapping utilizes a profile/rules type model. He and his Mohegan Sun group hit the Breeders Cup Pick 6 last year for $250k+.
by
dsipes
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I'm my very humble and novice opinion (and assuming no track bias), I'd say you have to use all horses in your vertical and horizontal wagers as A horses that had a negative TG fig in their last race. The only winner in the last 7 editions not to do so was crazy 'ole DROSSELMEYER.
by
dsipes
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Oscar Performance would have a tough time with World Approval and Beach Patrol again not to mention the really good Euro's coming over. Even the Euro second string look awfully good. Hard to win on the front end on Del Mar turf based on the most recent meet statistics. There were 53 turf races at 8f and 9f combined. Only 8 of those 53 went wire to wire.
by
dsipes
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Definitely the best in USA and his to be part of your horizontal plays with some Euros. Eagerly awiaiting TG's seminar on this race.
by
dsipes
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JUst confused about the stats to the right of the THORO-PATTERN on the sheets. Any explantion whould be appreciated.
I'm from Kentucky and go to Churchill and Keeneland a lot. Any upcoming seminars coming up there? Anyone want to take a "very eager to learn this product" handicapper under their wing and teach me a thing or two about Thoro-Graph. I really want to crush Breede
by
dsipes
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Is there going to be ANY discussion or analysis of the Arc horse's Thoro-Graph figures by an "expert" on here? C'mon guys, let's get in the weeds on this stuff.
by
dsipes
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I did read the "explanatory material" on the site. Not very helpful IMO. Maybe there's more I'm not finding. Would appreciate some explanation on what the statistic material to the right of the Thoro-Pattern on the Sheets mean. I think the stats are for that particular pattern, but just need confirmation. Thank you.
by
dsipes
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My thread has gotten way off topic. Been going through some past topics on this ASK THE EXPERTS. Doesn't seem like there's any discussion by experts on Thoro-Graph analysis or ways to apply the patterns. Was hoping for more here.
by
dsipes
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Are there any other Patterns other than the 0-2-X and Bounce Patterns anyone notices? Asking the Experts for some discussion. Thank you.
by
dsipes
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Sorry to ask a dumb question, but trying very hard to learn Thoro-Graph sheets:
Under THORO-Pattern on the sheets, it states (example):
Dirt 3yo Oct-Dec: Prev Top 1, Off-Pr-Pr (3.1, 1, 1.1). Then it says to the right of this: Sts 1287, Top% 25, Pr% 39, Off% 24 and X% 12.
Could someone please interpret this for me. Thank you very much.
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dsipes
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Just trying to work through my handicapping process. I respect handicapper Jim Mazur very much. His products in PROGRESSIVE HANDICAPPING uses a lot of criteria from the past that eliminates some and puts some in a contender list. For example, it's good in some Breeders Cup races to have had a Beyer top in the prep race and in others it's been proven that a top Beyer in the prep has n
by
dsipes
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Been looking at some previous Breeders Cup Thoro-Graph figs. Was wondering if anyone has found it useful/profitable to use the "historical profiles" as a baseline for contenders.
For example, looking at the last 7 editions of the BC Juvenile, there are some common themes to the winners: one, there must be a paired number or an improvement in figs from first lifetime start to second
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dsipes
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anybody notice anything on West Coast's TG sheet that suggests he will regress or alternatively, move forward? Like to hear your thoughts.
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dsipes
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