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Thoro-Graph
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Jerry,
Yes, you are correct. That thought crossed my mind. AND not only that, he was checked pretty severely in that MTH race &
lost all chance. Geez, I feel like a
real idiot now. Thanks for driving this point home, I will remeber this scenario
next time for sure. 30-1 should always
lead to giving the benfit of the doubt,
at least as a saver !
Did you play him ?
Nunzio
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nunzio
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My buddy & I are looking at Judges Case
and asking how he could be 27-1 (at the time)
in this field and since we both knew the horse well seeing him run in NY several times, we started to try & poke holes in him
as to why he was such a big price.
We convinced ourselves that Araya wasn't as good as Iwinski (recent claim) so he wouldn't likely fire his A race. We looked at eac
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nunzio
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HP,
A buddy of mine got us two seats about 30 yards before the wire on the 2nd floor,
right next to where Nial O'callahan
was sitting (Wiesmans Ferry). The lines weren't bad at all there. I hoisted a few cold ones myself especially after BABAE
& GIGISTAR won.
I got out of there right after the BELMONT
and if the last race on the day was earlier in the card, I probably would ha
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HP,
If I'm around, I'll throw up my picks.
Given some of the stuff I've read about
this whole thing, it looks like
the gentlemens contest did more harm than good.
By the way, I was at BEL on BELMONT day,
that place was rockin', 105,000 showed up
and the facility handled it quite well.
Nunzio
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nunzio
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Mall,
I thought he'd be 3-1. Motts horse (fav)
needed the lead to win & first time in a stake seemed like a good bet against.
With Forbidden Apple, I thought he'd be eyeballing Frankels horse through a moderate pace and his experience at the distance plus
his fondness for BEL & softer turf made
me think 5-1 was OK for him coming off a layoff.
Nunzio
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HP,
Thats pretty cool that I won. I will donate my months worth of TG sheets to you (HP) for
even thinking of doing something like this
(contest). It was a great idea.
MAKE SURE Jerry hooks you up til the end of
June !
Nunzio
PS You gotta love that McPeek won it if WE couldn't. His wife had cancer while pregnant & didn't do kemo because of the baby so the guy upstarir gave
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nunzio
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Does anyone know here can we find out what the early betting looks like ?
Nunzio
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Jason,
If you beleive the track speed remains constant through the course of the day,
I beleive you are mistaken. Take
the time to monitor (at least visually) what the track looks like and its consistency from race to race. Then watch all the maintenance that gets done. Do you think changes in temperature and or wind might play a role
in the track speed. I'm not personally
involved in
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nunzio
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With respect to point 1:
Did you ever see how often the Beyers
change in the form ? They change figures so often that its rediculous. Thats why I can't understand how anyone could take them seriously.
Nunzio
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How did this flick do a dis-service ?
When RD was kneeling while praying for the photo to come back his way I definietly
related. There isn't one of us who hasn't been in that spot before.
Nunzio
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nunzio
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HP,
I think tabithas math is wrong.
2x3x5 = $30.00 for a $1.00 bet.
Nunzio
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Alydar,
OK, I get it, I'll stay out of the way.
With that said though, I will bet my mythical 1000 on two races.
500 to win on Gygistar in the 8th &
500 to win on Forbidden Apple in the 9th.
Good Luck.
Nunzio
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Alydar,
Lets ahve a little fun with the contest & leave the BS aside. It'll be fun.
Nunzio
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Jerry,
Does this mean there might be a position open for me in your marketing detpartment ;)?
Nunzio
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BELMONT - 21 years ago
I think Watchmakers ML is a little off
with regard to MAGIC WEISNER.
If he is 15-1, you can't ignore him.
Wisemans Ferry will almost certainly insure a legit pace and that last 1/4 mile is going to be like the twilight zone for alot of these
horses. I've heard all about how early speed wins the Belmont but I can't help but think that if the pace isn't too slow, MAGIC WEISN
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Michael,
I absolutely don't like this horse one bit.
How can you take him over any of the top three horses in the Preakness? Look at his
race in the juvenile, he was 30-1
and ran for a 1/2 mile. Even if
he is 50-1 I don't like him.
On a different note, Wisemans Ferry
is going to make sure War Emblem earns
his triple cown, if he gets it. I can't
see the pace of this race being
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nunzio
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I think given that Beyer Figures are in the form is actually a good thing. They aren't too good and more times than not, they
make underlays on horses that ain't that good. Be happy they are in the form.
Nunzio
PS With that said, they did indicate WAR
EMBLEM was a true contender but Andy
beyer himself didn't even pick him to
finish 1,2,3. Whats up with that ?
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I think anyone who is of the mindset that
the track speed remains constant from race 1
til the end of the card even on days when there is no wind, no humidity, and no drastic
change in temperature is only fooling themselves. Making the assumption that
conditions are identical throughout a card
is naive. Next time you head out to the races pay speciall attention to the racing surface throughout
by
nunzio
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I am all for finding out the truth, and making a point thats worth making, especially if someone is wrong or blind to it. But
you should read what you write a few times before posting. Instead of people looking at what you are saying and its validity, they are likely to read into how you are saying what you are saying and will likely dismiss the point you are trying to make. Its great to be p
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nunzio
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HP,
You've got too much class so you need not
prove anything. Save your time & energy & focus on the things you enjoy.
Peace.
Nunzio
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Michael,
I think you are right in saying WE is a nice
horse, but comparing him to Seattle Slew
or Secretariat is not only premature, but in my opinion, way too flattering. I can't even mention Affirmed because I've always been an Alydar fan so my objectivity regarding him is blurred.
I was lucky enough to have WE in the derby; not because I though he was the best horse, rather bec
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Mark,
I beleive if Booklet, his rider, and his trainer choose to, he will run war Emblem
if not into the ground, potentially into defeat. Maybe, not sure yet, he certainly
looked powerful finishing up in the Derby.
USS Tinossa is training like a freak,
he scares me. He hasn't really BEATEN
anyone of any stature so taking short odds on him isn't what I plan to do. If they ignore him
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Alydar,
I wish they paid at the windows based on figures, my POP would have at least cashed
his wins bet each time. He doubled his bet each successive time & got beat again & again.
I took a wack with War Emblem at
20-1, if Perfect Drift would have
gotten 2nd, I'd just be getting back
from the Bahamas about now! I just read that WE has chips in both ankles, hard to beleive th
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nunzio
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I have been aware of the KY factor for several years. The late Henry Kuck and I had many discussions regarding this issue and
he was convinced beyond a shadow of a doubt that horses who races in KY were running
faster and further than ever before in
their careers. When analyzing a horses race record it was apparent that they never approached the speed with which they ran
outside of KY either b
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Ah you mentioned my boy, Forego. He will
always be my all time favorite. When
he beat Honest Pleasure in the slop at BEL,
I thought my POP was going to pop a vain he was screaming for him so loudly.
The days of handicap horses running with 135 lbs or more are over because trainers whine
and complaian. For me, they are the most exiting races to watch because the best horses usually have to ove
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nunzio
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If HH gets to 6-1, I'll play him.
War Emblem is being left alone at 18-1 and
might be worth a crack if he looks the part.
Perfect Drift taking money and 7-1 is no bargain. MD is dead on the board, that lung
congestion put a damper on him. SAARLAND
is favored ? Excuse me but I don't think so ! GOOD LUCK to everyone !
Nunzio
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HP,
Based on the pace figures I use, no horse with the exeption of Booklet who will not be in saturday, has better pace figures than MD & Buddah.
Nunzio
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