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Thoro-Graph
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OPM, I beleive you are dead on. In fact,
I've had this discussion on this board
around last years Derby. Show me any 3yo
in this era that could run with Alydar, Affirmed, Seattle Slew, Spectacular Bid.....
It just wouldn't happen.
Nunzio
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nunzio
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HP,
I was at that Tourney in CT several years ago
and asked him if he ever heard of Henry Kuck & his ratings, he looked at me like I was
speaking another language. From many of the articles I've read, he seems to be Beyer-centric. Think about it, if he even hints that there are other figures that are superior to Beyer's, he's openly admiting that he is not providing the be
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nunzio
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FastSpeed,
Can you elaborate on how Privtae Emblem hasn't looked good at CD. If you are correct, you might have saved me on
using him.
Nunzio
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nunzio
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HP,
Don't assume Buddah will be in front; he doesn't need the lead. He was forced to
adapt to the race shape in the Wood.
Day won the race going into the first turn when he was forced to squeeze through a tight spot or take back and sit behind MD. I think
you'll see patient Pat sit 3rd or 4th
(if the pace is too fast) and get the jump on the late runners. I read MD came back
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nunzio
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Mayakovsky has no business inthe derby, he should run in the Withers this weekend at AQU. He would e part o the pace for 3/4's of a mile but thats it. Saarland IMHO doesn't have the turn of foot I like to see so
I doubt I'll even have him on any tickets.
I agree the post positions dictate how the race is LIKELY to be run so I'm hoping my horse (Buddah) draws between 3 & 8
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nunzio
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War Emblem ran a fast race (not as fast as the 110 Beyer would suggest) but the pace
in that race was very ordinary. He will have a hard time outrunning Buddah or MD. He has never shown any ability to rate so I don't regard him as a strong contender. Sunday Break wouldn't have gotten by Buddah if they went around again so I can't be too high on him but he did show significant im
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nunzio
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Pat Day is a very savvy rider, he always seems to have horse left when it counts. To his detriment, he is sometimes too patient & that can get him into trouble. When I watched th ereplay of the Wood, he looked like he knew he had it won from the 1/4 pole home & barely hit Buddah until MD poked his nose in front inside the 1/8 pole. There is no question that MD & SB were being ridde
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Buddah - 22 years ago
I realize he is lighly raced and has run
very fat but I can't help but like this horse.
He has tactical speed and can be in the catbird seat if someone decides on a suicidal pace. His last work @ BEL in the slop
with the dogs up was very good.
He will have several days to train over the CD surface and at the risk of making my
Derby selection without seeing his odds,
I can't imagine I
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nunzio
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I had the "displeasure" of meeting Crist at a tourney in CT hosted by Sports Haven. He
seemed very full of himself. It was a nice concellation prize finishing ahead of him but
not hitting the board for the real money....
Nunzio
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nunzio
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HP,
I can't get Buddah off my list, he scares me.
He was a game as game gets in the Wood & day looked like he knew he had it won and had
alot of horse left at the finish. If he draws a good post and is 8-1 or so, I
like him.
Nunzio
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nunzio
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BD,
Think about tossing Buddah a little harder.
I think he is a strong contender; If he draws good and is 8-1 or better he
should be kept on the ticket.
Nunzio
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nunzio
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Mark,
I beleive 1 1/4 miles is beyond his scope.
Nunzio
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nunzio
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Mark,
Missed the Pincay blooper, I'll go back & watch the replay. I hope I'm in as good of shape as he is when I get to that age.
Nunzio
PS Harlans Holiday looked like he could
have won by a pole had he been asked.
Very deceptively good race.
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nunzio
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Mark,
I think sometimes the fans give these guys
too much credit. They are both excellent horsemen so don't get me wrong. Race analysis is another story. This is an "excuse" business and very rarely will
you hear a trainer give an HONEST response to
why his horse got beat.
I don't what you think but I beleive Pat Day
won this race going into the 1st turn when he
asked
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nunzio
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McPeek can win the Derby with Harlans Holiday and the Oaks with Take Charge Lady. There isn't a trainer in America who wouldn't trade with him right now.
Nunzio
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nunzio
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Mark,
Didn't catch the jock switch on Fonz's, great call, I would have probably dutched the two of them besides the exacta box.
Given the price on War Emblem over Fonz,
I just bet WE. I didn't think he'd regress,
we won effortlessly last time.
Thanks again for that jock call, I totally missed it.
Nunzio
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nunzio
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Mark,
Repent will win the Derby ? I just don't see it. If you held my feet to the fire, I'd
pick the FL Derby winner Harlans Holiday, but I will reserve judgement for another month.
Nunzio
PS I like Fonz's & War Emblem at SPT.
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nunzio
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I think Nokoma is sitting on a big race,
working like a machine to boot. If the price is square I'll take my shot.
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nunzio
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Mark,
You are correct, he did switch leads but it was inside the 1/8 pole when he did, and it wasn't very pretty afterwards. He was all
over the track. I'm not of the opinion he is in a league by himself. Siphonic is a better horse but whether he'll reproduce his number is another question. Frankels 3yo (name escapes me) is pretty fast and that 3yo filly that won at FG (name a
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nunzio
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Absolutely, that would be very interesting indeed. She is more tractable that the one-dimentional Winning Colors filly
who won the Derby on the lead. Good Call.
Nunzio
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nunzio
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I have been reading way too much hype about this horse. I doubt he will even make it to the derby because horses that don't switch leads usually do so for many reasons.
Either they didn't switch leads because they were tired or they were tired because they didn't switch leads (can't wait for Alydar's response to that one...). More importantly,
there is probably a physica
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nunzio
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I would not include turf races in that
generalization. In fact many turf races are run in the exact opposite fashion and it is even more pronounced in the classier races.
Nunzio
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nunzio
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Re: - 22 years ago
Phil,
I absolutely would like to hear your thoughts on paddock & post parade analysis. Lets face
it, if you don't feel good on a particlular
day, and it shows, its unreasonable for
anyone to expect you to perform at your best.
Horses are no different. The obvious negative signs of sweating & being unruly
with the handlers but there are others.
A dull coat, listless walking with
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nunzio
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Re: - 22 years ago
Mall,
You are dead on. When I have a clear
head, adequate time, and a good attitude,
the answers to all the questions ( or
at least most) become as clear as they can be. Unfortunately, those 3 criteria are rarely met on a consistent basis. One constant in all of this is to go to the races
solo. Too many distractions lead to
incomplete analysis and missed opportunites.
If you ever find a way
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nunzio
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Re: - 22 years ago
You know, I actually like all three of you guys (Alydar, BJ, & HP) because aside from
writing well, when it comes to handicapping,
I feel I can learn from you. I don't post
much here anymore for numerous reasons,
but a big part of it is just what this thread
shows. Degrading or be-rating someone because they don't understand is different from doing the same to a blow-hard who can
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nunzio
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Re: - 22 years ago
Mark,
I don't think Repent is worthy of being annointed just yet. He didn't switch leads
at the FG and going 1 1/4 mi with
most of it on his left lead is going to be very difficult.
Nunzio
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nunzio
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ROTW - 22 years ago
This race looks like it could set up beautifully for North East Bound. There doesn't look like much pace in here outside of NEB & TV Sports Director. Since the latter draws outside, NEB has every right to
save ground and set a sensible pace. Perry
takes the BL off which could mean he's
trying to get NEB to relax more but from post 2, he's almost certainly going to be very clo
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nunzio
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this new board seems to be pretty light on
posts, whats up ?
also, i can't remember the password you gave me, how can i change it ?
nunzio
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nunzio
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Did anyone catch Summer Colony at SA this weekend. Mcannally (sp?) was the only other horse proven at the distance of 1 1/8. I'd
seen Summer colony run in NY and I knew she'd
fire. The only doubt I had was that she was training at GP and than shipped to California. If she'd of shown just one work over the SA surface, I'd of increased my bet by 50%. I guess it didn't
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