Classhandicapper-- An excellent product. Another tool that everyone needs in their handicapping tool box. I , however, am one of those people who look at pace figures with a bit of skepticism. Jockeys have too much influence on them and they are more useful in the cheaper races. I think where they help in the higher classes is ascertaining if an allowance nw1 or 2 or can step up. Horses that hby jbelfior - Ask the Experts
TGJB-- Just a suggestion for ROTW. It appears that Saturday's Cardinal Hdcap on the grass at Churchill Downs is coming up as a pretty good race. I'm sure there are others out there who share the feeling of "no mas" as far as the Aqueduct grass races (Red Smith). Doesn't look like much anywhere else; right now the Hollywood Turf Cup is not getting the juices flowing.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
Based on the TG sheets and the fact that speed holds quite well on the CD course when it's yielding, WARLEIGH was a terrific play in the one & two hole in the exacta. If you look at HARD BUCK coming out of PP #2 with his recent #'s, the $90 and change exacta was quite playable. My feeling is that you can maximize on a horse like WARLEIGH by playing him up and down with the most lby jbelfior - Ask the Experts
It pleased my heart to see a master like Dickinson beat out the vitamin man Lake. At times there is justice in this agme. Good Luck, Joe B.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
They're forecasting hurricane like winds later today in the NY area. Perhaps they'll get a turf course other than soft for Saturday's Aqu turf feature. Good luck, Joe Bby jbelfior - Ask the Experts
TGJB--- Can you imagine. Most of us on this post would die to have ANY kind of connection to a legend such as RUFFIAN and this bimbo "thinks its name was Ruffian."....ugh!!!! Good Luck, Joe B.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
CH--- Well put. I'll add another two. #1 BOLD FORBES staggering in Belmont's long stretch trying a distance he had no business trying. But he found just that something that we cannot measure and held off McKenzie Bridge. #2 FOREGO running down a loose Honest Pleasure under a boatload of weight....awesome. As someone once said..."classy horses are fast, but not all fast horses aby jbelfior - Ask the Experts
I'll throw my 2 cents worth in. I too am looking forward to TGJB's write-up. My feeling is that today's sprinters are quicker due to the changes in breeding (a point well made by Michael D.) Not sure about the routers. As for that MINESHAFT vs SPECTACULAR BID. I'll take the 'Bid if the race is in California; I'll take MINESHAFT at Belmont. PS: I'll take SEATTby jbelfior - Ask the Experts
TGJB-- I figured that was what you said; regardless, it would be tough to imagine a better performance rating than a negative 5. Joe B.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
TGJB-- I see where you are quoted in this week's Thoroughbred Times (back page adv. for MINESHAFT and Lane's End). "What he is is the fastest of all time...." It does not say what the rest of the quote was, but I'm assuming you meant in the last 20 years. Joe B.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
TGJB-- I thought that's why the track will move the rails out. Not sure if that was the case on Saturday, but if you remember from earlier discussions this week they moved the rails out 18 feet for the previous Saturday's turf stake. This is where we got into the discussion as to why the outside horses in the Knickerbocker (1 1/8m) all ran so poorly. So what happens in the Athenia---thby jbelfior - Ask the Experts
Kev-- Congratulations....terrific tout. Keep it going in the contest. good Luck, joe b.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
Kev-- I keyed COMMANDER'S FLAG with TIZBUD, KEDINGTON, and GREY MEMO in huge exacta boxes...ugh!!!! DNP tri or super....more ugh!!!!! KEDINGTON found the wrong time to get game all of a sudden. How you bet sometimes is more important than how you handicap. Good Luck, Joe B.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
I just read the Thoroughbred Times BC issue and found it amusing that Bobby Frankel, after the post position draw, said that PP had little chance of winning the Classic. I guess that's what happens when you use the RAGS. I wish I had known this before the running of the race---I would have rooted even harder. Good Luck, Joe B.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
TGJB-- Your comment that turf horses are a lot more figure consistent than dirt horses is certainly evident to anyone who has utilized any type of speed figures/performance ratings. What I have found is that a majority of sheet players who play grass races stick to this notion like glue. As such, they are less forgiving of a poor grass figure even if it happens to get stuck within a very strongby jbelfior - Ask the Experts
TGJB-- That's interesting regarding Belmont's turf. I had read about that in Litfin's book and am still amazed when Tom Durkin describes the opening quarter under these circumstances as " in a dawdling 25 over the firm going." Perhaps someone should explain to him what's going on. Good Luck, Joe B.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
TGJB-- The race in question was the Knickerbocker Hdcap run at 1 1/8 m. I like the idea of the "longer" turns and shorter straightaways making it that much more difficult for the outside posts. There were some nice horses out there that were no factor at any point in the race. If I remember correctly, none of the posts 8 and out were able to cut inside to save ground. An interesting tby jbelfior - Ask the Experts
TGJB-- You may have already touched on this topic, so forgive me if I am bringing up old stuff. It would be new to me and perhaps other new members. Due to the condition of Aqueduct's turf course last Saturday, the rails were out 18 feet. I found it curious that the horses who broke from the outside posts (e.g TAMS TERMS,BLAZING FURY, SLEW VALLEY, REQUEST FOR PAROLE) all ran off the boardby jbelfior - Ask the Experts
Silver Charm--- The Distaff used to be dominated by chalk. It just seems that the fillies and mares of several years ago (e.g. BEAUTIFUL PLEASURE, BAYAKOA, LADY'S SECRET, PASEANA, JEWEL PRINCESS) were more durable racking up multiple Grade I wins and still holding it together at year end. I hear your point. Perhaps the year long grind is too much for the now breed, especially the fillies aby jbelfior - Ask the Experts
I guess I am getting better at my projections. I had ASHADO improving off of her healthy pattern to about a 4-4.5 and VICTORY USA improving to a 3.5-4. I boxed them heavily in the exacta and foolishly did not give in to my stubborness that HALFBRIDLED was no way going to repeat a 5 or slighly improve her performance rating from Post #14. I was in awe of her performance. Also, I will raise an issby jbelfior - Ask the Experts
Upper Nile-- I stand corrected. You definitely did not say that you played any of Frankel's horses on Saturday. As I have mentioned in a previous post, I have a tough time logically explaining how a top trainer like Frankel can have a 2-57 (3%) record in the Breeders Cup. It certainly raises some doubts in at least my mind as to what is going on differently during the year (20-30%, recordby jbelfior - Ask the Experts
UpperNile--- That's fine. Ignore what TGJB and some of the other posts here are alluding to and keeping playing the Frankel and other "magic" trainers on BC day. The rest of us need players like you, who refuse to believe what you can't actually see, so that we can feast on days like this. Good Luck, Joe B.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
Ok, Dana you're right. He's 2 for 57 on Breeder's Cup day because he's unlucky one day a year and it happens to always be that day. Joe B.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
P-DUB; Congratulations. I think we all need to pay attention in the future to the improving 3yo sprinter in the fall, especially when they are fresh and off an impressive performance rating as was CB. If anything, the value plus the pattern made him an interesting contender. Good Luck, Joe B.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
Again, I have no proof and I can certainly be very wrong about this. There are just too many instances for me not to wonder, question, or remark about it. This is not a sour grapes post as I did not wager on any of Frankel's horses. That's a lot of excuses CAMPBREEZE, and there are 49 others to explain. That's not to say your wrong, however. ASFUFH--I grew up in Brooklyn, NY and kby jbelfior - Ask the Experts
Classhandicapper--- I'm sure that there are times where things are more closely watched than others. I hi-lite Frankel's dismal showing in the BC and his 0-18 streak this year at Saratoga where the other magical trainers (e.g. Dutrow, Lake) historically struggle. But like I mentioned earlier, of course I nor anyone else has any proof. Therefore it really does not matter what I think.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
Beyerguy-- You are correct. Pace for the Juvenile colts was much faster than Juv Fillies. MINISTER ERIC saved ground and was a good 8-10 lenghts off that half mile 45.17. He had no excuse other than a colt that came up much lighter in the numbers outkicked him. Good Luck, Joe B.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
Sheba87--- I respect your response and your points are well taken. I, on the other hand, have difficulty with the 2 for 57 for a guy who is lights out during the rest of the year. Good Luck, Joe B.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
I always look for the pair ups by the 2yos. TGJB turned most of the THORO followers on to this "healthy pattern." However I thought that a pair-up of 13's, followed by the likely 4-6 point improvement, would not get it done in a BC race. Perhaps I should have downgraded the race, but I boxed the "healthy patterns" of CHAPEL ROYALE and MINISTER ERIC and keyed them both inby jbelfior - Ask the Experts
Sheba87-- What does he do all year compared to the BC? He trains at a 25-30% rate of winners all year, sets the record for Grade 1's and is 2 for 57 (that's 3% if you do not have a calculator nearby) on Breeder's Cup day....hmmm. Magical potion??? Who knows...perhaps it's the same thing that turns a 5 yo allowance sprinter like SHAKE YOU DOWN into a top BC contender. Goodby jbelfior - Ask the Experts