HP-- Great point. Just as one example; TAKE CHARGE LADY who broke from the #8 hole in last year's Distaff. Not saying she would have beat AZERI, but TCL ran off the board. If anything, SA dirt should be more honest from the rail out. That does not mean that I think the 8 hole is a great spot to be in a 1 1/8 dirt race, however unlike AP last year, it won't be impossible. Good Luck,by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
Silver Charm-- I agree. I also had the horse you are speaking of and was quite suprised that the 4 was the favorite. As for other plays at that time of day---how about the MINESHAFT-QUEST exacta for $18 and change. All you had to do was eliminate the fake Dubai horse, STATE SHINTO (he should be running in 1 1/4 allowance races on grass), and EVENING ATTIRE who you knew would have zero pace to cby jbelfior - Ask the Experts
Lost in all of the AZERI defeat was the incredulous decision made by the Santa Anita stewards to DQ ELLOLUV from second. Yes, I am venting here because it cost me a substantial score. Putting that aside, is there anyone out there who can speak without the emotion attached to the financial impact.?? My points are these: 1) ADORATION was tiring and bearing in and out herself 2) ELLOLUV had alreadby jbelfior - Ask the Experts
Silver Charm--- I agree. I wish all of the top 3yos were healthy now and running. They would all be overbet, especially FUNNY CIDE. I also agree with TGJB. I think CONGAREE will be a handful at Santa Anita. I stopped short of playing him in the Futures thinking there was a chance Baffert would put him in the Sprint. PS: Anyone give RISKAVERSE a chance tomorrow with her post position advantageby jbelfior - Ask the Experts
Mall--- Why am I getting the feeling that if MINESHAFT wins the JCGC tomorrow (which he should with little trouble), Neil Howard avoids CONGAREE and MEDAGLIA D'ORO at Santa Anita like the plague? Joe B.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
TGJB--- I agree with your alternative argument. That certainly could have been the case with FESTIN. I used him as an example since he was a 5YO and had never approached that # prior. Thanks, Joe B.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
TGJB--- Want a real life example. Look back at the speed figure obtained by a one run closer named FESTIN when he blew by both JOLIE's HALO and FARMA WAY who set an insane :44 half mile in the one turn 1 1/8 Nassau County Hdcap at Belmont back in the early 90's. FESTIN never came close to approaching that figure before or after. I use this race from that far back because #1) it was a Gby jbelfior - Ask the Experts
Classhandicapper-- My last post on this, I promise. There is also the school of thought that class horses, especially the GR I or II types overcome any pace scenario. In most cases, not all, I agree with that. In my experience I have found that looking at pace figures for GR I or GR II types is mostly a waste of time. The final number for this class usually tells the story. Where I agree with yby jbelfior - Ask the Experts
Sorry Kev, I have to make one more point. Classhandicapper---I understand your thoughts and opinions. That's the beauty of this game. Everyone takes a different look at things. If you feel that TMW achieved his outstanding figure under optimum circumstances, then perhaps you can conclude that his number in the Travers is not a true reflection of him. I agree with you on how TMW may have achby jbelfior - Ask the Experts
TGJB--- Now the interesting question is can TMW bounce back in the BC to the level of his Travers performance, which he will probably need to get the job done. My feeling is #1) the Travers was too strong an effort and TMW will not recover in time to duplicate and #2) Santa Anita will not be as kind to his tendency to close wide (especially if 14 go in the gate) Joe B. PS: Hank F. sends hisby jbelfior - Ask the Experts
Classhandicapper--- Your second point is backed up in the majority of grass races, especially the marathons. Although the gap for an average turf stakes race maybe quite narrow, the consistent 1 or 2 point differences between one contender and another can be huge. PS: Anyone know of Mott's BC plans with STROLL?? He's starting to remind me of LURE. Good Luck at the Windows, Joe B.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
Aceriley63-- One thing in your favor is the quirky turf course at Santa Anita. Of all the major turf courses in this country, I would say that experience over the SA course is as big an edge as you can get. Unless one is talking about a LURE or MIESQUE, my opinion would be to downgrade the chances of any horse who has not raced over that course. Good Luck to ALL at the Windows, Joe B.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
Ditto. I agree with the faster pace view, however it is possible that PRETTY WILD did bounce. I believe that he did not because I was never impressed with him to begin with and rate him as a no better than a good allowance horse. I also subscribe to "Logic" and find that he does a terrific job with the pace figs. Speed figs, pace figs, trip notes, etc...they're all tools that overby jbelfior - Ask the Experts
Classhandicapper---- Look no furthur than the results of last Saturday's Jerome @ Belmont Park. DURING (who came out of the faster pace KB) beat up on PRETTY WILD by 5 lenghts. Joe B.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
Ace-- I wish you luck with any Frankel horse in a BC race. Most of his barn has been "sick." Good Luck, Joe B.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
BJ--- Nice call. SOARING FREE ran his eyeballs out; caught a generous exacta payoff with razor sharp 'Blues. Thanks, Joe B.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
Mall-- I love handicapping this race. Got real lucky last year when Chopinnina barely lasted for second behind Good Journey and survived a stewards inquiry. Not sure about a 3yo, though very talented, cutting back from mile and a half and trying to tackle tough, older milers. Good luck, Joe B.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
Derby1592--- Yes, and it comes as no shock that EMPIRE MAKER is coughing the loudest. Joe B.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
TGJB--- Just a suggestion for ROTW; Atto Mile is an unusual turf race in that it goes at a mile around 1 turn. The race historically produces box car exactas and likely entry WANDO will be way overbet. Thanks, Joe B.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
Stewards were already on the Southern State at the time of the infraction. Joe B.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
Gentlemen: LADY TAK has distance limitations and DENON is the one who is slipping. If Steve Asmussen is unhappy with Bailey, he could always go back to using one of the pin heads that rides on the Kentucky or Louisiana circuit. Good Luck to all, Joe B.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
TGJB--- Great call on "Sweet Return" in last Saturday's DM Derby. "...usable in exotics at a big price." I just missed cashing huge exacta play when the wire came up a split too soon. I don't complain when they come that close at better than 20-1. Joe B.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
Perhaps these conversations can explain how a Dubai also-ran named TAFASEEL can suddenly look like the next coming during the Belmont spring meet and then fall to the point where he was a non-factor at Philly Park. Joe B.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
TGJB-- As I mentioned in a previous post, I wonder what the PEACE RULES, MILWAUKEE BREW and EMPIRE MAKERS of the racing world will do in the breeding shed. Joe B.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
TGJB-- Thanks for posting with ALABAMA #'s. I would be quite interested in HALORY LEIGH in the one turn Gazelle at Belmont. I wonder what connections' plans are. Joe B.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
Speaking of Wild and Wicked, what the hell was Shane Sellers thinking having him that far off the pace on a strong speed biased track. Not saying it would have mattered, but at least put the horse in the race. Perhaps it's time ol' Shane packed it in for good. Joe B.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
It's a tough game and that is never more evident than when you are trying to tackle Saratoga. But we love the mental challenge and that's why we keep coming back for more. Joe B.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
TGJB--- Too bad Funny Cide's people did not win their battle with Tagg....and too bad Empire Maker got sick; "Most Wanted would have dusted them both at 6-1. Nice call on the King's Bishop. I had Valid Video @ Calder and thought he would bounce like he normally does off a big effort. Used "Notion with 5, but not with 'Video. That's why they call it gambling. Joeby jbelfior - Ask the Experts
No, I will not bet Bailey since almost all of his mounts are overbet. I simply said that I prefer his style. I do respect your preference for other, more patient rides. That certainly does work better on the turf. By the way, Editor's Note won the Belmont because Skip Away ran the 6f in 1:102/5 that day. Douglas was just along for the ride.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts
Perhaps Valdivia rode HEAT HAZE from farther behind under instructions from Frankel. The 1 3/16 was questionable. Doesn't matter. Over the long run, I'll take Bailey's style anytime. Joe B.by jbelfior - Ask the Experts