I looked at the sheets this morning based on your post (not a player yesterday). Here is the counter argument to playing the winner.
The winner exited a $100k race (not $1.2M) where he finished second in a 7 horse field at 22-1. Besides the winner, any horse in that race would have been a very long price in yesterday's race.
The winner had not won a race since 2018.
The trainer stats show last race > 90 days at 9% win, 39% top or pair. Trainer has had 6 starters all year.
In the horse's favor, he has typically been running in races less than a mile and his top was at 1.5 miles, although at the end of his 5yo campaign (race ready for his longest race ever). Maybe the trainer has figured out that he really wants to go long.
It all comes down to how you analyze the race (what if Noble Indy did run head and head with Paret, how would that have affected the outcome) and the individual handicapper's opinion on what a horse will run in a race. My opinion only, as a southern hemisphere bred 6yo with the trainer stats, I personally would have assigned something under 5% to pair or run a new top yesterday and maybe something under 30% chance of running his secondary top (this is made tougher because so many races are in Australia with no figs, but based on the 9 for the one race down under, hard to see that he was running better than the 4.5 he started running later last year). I will be curious to see what number is assigned to the winner. My guess is something around 4.5 (so obviously I was wrong in my assumptions!!). At 38-1, I could play this horse. At 20-1, I couldn't based upon my assumptions.
I love that TG sheets do highlight horses that can and do outrun their odds. Its that edge all of us are looking for.
Good luck
