I've put a little thinking into a projected odds attempt. I have some reservations about what will happen and waiting as long as possible although not feeling super confident as in some years. I may give it a shot although not as in tune with the game this year as in the past. And I may say the heck with it as others are all jumping on this attempt on twitter now with plenty of solid guesses out there.
Last year's favorite, Tiz the Law, went off at .70-1 in a 15 horse field. You have to go back to 1976 to find a shorter beaten favorite than that, Foolish Pleasure at .40-1. Only a 15 horse field last year but 3 of the top 4 favorites hit the super and it paid $792.58 for 10 cents. Normally the Derby, as this year, has $1 supers. But last year, for obvious reasons, they had dimes. The super paid $15,851.60 for a $2 increment (792.58 for a dime).
If looking to play supers, a top 3 choice has hit the super every single year since and including 2000. The favorite has hit the super the last 9 years. The average $2 super in that time (last 9 years) has paid $53,416.69 and the median was $39,236.40 (for $2 increments). I know these small samples make these meaningless to a true statistics person. But I pass it along if interested. The $1 minimum for a super, with field of more than 14, and often times 19 or 20 is truly a unique opportunity in the wagering year. My approach despite the favorite's success lately is to toss EQ (likely favorite although I'm still not completely sold on that) and play a 7 horse box with the ones that I prefer for $1 at a cost of $840. I see many easy eliminations, I dislike the favorite at the moment (and don't see that changing), and I see it as a good bet no matter the result as I have strong opinions on the ones I think will be there and a strong opinion against EQ. The TG read will be interesting.
A few notes in the Derby link below on the heaviest beaten favorites of all time if interested although it has not been updated to include Tiz the Law.
[
www.kentuckyderby.com]
