Confused
The proper question would be: Why is it
my opinion that KA
will bounce?
If JB could open a wagering pool restricted to people who purchased data for
that day, there would be a surprising amount of value. Races are sometimes won
by runners who are not among the fastest, and we all look at data differently.
What was the question?
Bouncing KA:
This is TG board so lets look at TG data. I have already let half the cat out
of the bag regarding KA's Thoro-pattern. I will spill it entirely, hoping not
to lose lifetime free admission to TG Spa seminars or lifetime waived entry
fees to the TG (Senior?) Open.
In a small sample (44), one quarter of the runners showing the same pattern as
KA have produced a top in their next race. How large a top? Big enough to win?
The other Thoro-pattern possibilities show that the chances of a pair (not good
enough to win, my opinion) or worse=75%.
There is a TG notation next to his TG # for Florida Derby that I would like to
investigate. I was fast asleep while the race was being run and have not seen a
replay, maybe tonight or tomorrow
Non-Thorographically, the trainer of KA has a Derby record of 2 for 43. I do
not want to hold a lot of TAP's early Derby misfires against him, but it is
probably accurate to say that TAP has saddled more Derby bounces than any
trainer in history.
One more point is that my projected Belmont Stakes winner, Dynamic One, also
trained by TAP, is almost as fast as KA on the TGs and will be a much larger
price.
This will be KA's second race off Lasix. The only log I will throw on that fire
is to say (opinion) there is nowhere near enough data for me or anyone else to
determine whether regression (if any) will come first or second race OFF?
If you could not tell from NONSCIENCE, I think the two GP preps beat a horse
up. Orb and Always Dreaming were Derby winners who never won again; Max
Security's hooves were not touching the ground. Nyquist won both Florida and
Kentucky Derbies, but the Florida Derby was his only prep race at GP.
AJKreider expressed it differently, but I agree: If I go four deep in the Derby
on my horizontal, KA not one of the four. If I go as deep as six, he is
probably one of the six.
Confession Confusion: The whole GP multiple prep/NONSCIENCE thing popped in my
head because of Greatest Honour, who must have had enough Derby qualifying
points after winning the Fountain of Youth and Holy Bull that he did not need
to run in Florida Derby in order to be eligible to run in Kentucky Derby.
Bull/Fountain/Florida Derby/Kentucky Derby/No Lasix rather ambitious, would
love to have known Shug's take on this...
