I mentioned my examples were anecdotal. But they were all in about a two hour period give or take on a Saturday afternoon.
No outcome is preordained. Even the ones that are could still go awry as happened in this not so famous Fairmount race.
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www.paulickreport.com]
But the idea that late odds drops are not happening is not accurate. They are happening. The question is if they are in line with what is expected based on other pools. BitPlayer mentioned that DRF has projected odds. I see them and know what they say. But if you pay attention they sometimes change and fluctuate as the race approaches. So I don't have any idea what their basis is for their projected odds. I don't put much stock in them for this reason. Rocky has taught me the method for calculating out the potential win odds based on other pools; however, when you are looking at multiple tracks it is more difficult to calculate all that out as you are making the fine line handicapping decisions.
I'm not a fixed odds guy. Even with these late odds changes, I still prefer to fight it out parimutually.
Last, I agree that odds go up on potential winners and odds go way down on losers also. It isn't just odds decreases on winners. But it seems to be happening more often that winners are being bet late. I even have one very respected friend who insists bets are going in after the race has started and there is no convincing him otherwise. Paying attention yesterday, I'm not sure how I would refute what he is saying. It is not a good look. If I am introducing people to the sport and tell them that 4-1 Microcap should be 4-1 based on double payouts and based on DRF Projections and the horse goes off 2-1 as he wins the race, the new potential fan would want me to explain. And the right answer is ? ? ? ?
