With the defection of Mizzen Mast with a quarter crack, everyone and his uncle is shooting for the $600k winners prize.
Frankel in a GI always has to be respected. His entry of Euchre (116) and Milwaukee Brew (113) 7/2 is very beatable. 6yo Euchre has a string of five straight 2.0's yawn! MB has a 1/2 pt top in his last to a 2.3 three weeks rest. His closing style from the 12 hole will cause huge ground loss at least on last turn that will negate his 5# edge in weight. Huge underlay
Cagney: 8-1 ()115) running 4's and 5's on the grass distance shouldn't be a problem. Still an underlay at 8-1
Fancy As: 6-1 (114) 4yo Canadian runner has paired up 2.3's for Baffy, gets blinks. 4.2 pts better than in Canuk land.
Sky Jack: 5-1 the (116) 0.3 (4.1 top) he ran 12/00 hurt, leading to a 15 month vacation, returns with a 1.2 and will be gunning with several others for the lead, not at 10F. underlay
Giant Gentleman: 5-1 (114) returned to his top of 1.2 in his last, ran 2nd twice to Mizzen Mast, looking for a forward move. Will likely fall in behind Sky Jack. Solid.
Seinne: 30-1 (112) has top of 4.0 in US debut, 6.2 in last two. Passola
Kudos: 15-1 (115) Hmmmmmm his two off the board dirt finishes were 2yo sprints (won by Swept Overboard and Malabar Gold) after which he took a year off and started his turf career. His last was a 2.1 top on the dirt to a 2.0 in a race taken off the sod. While sire Kris S is thought of as a grass sire, his off spring run 1.1 faster on the dirt (not in T-Quick info) two weeks rest may not be enuff, but at the right price.
Freedom Crest: (116) 15-1 ugly BC race, but horse runs well fresh getting 2.0's after 153 and 70 days rest. No reason to think pattern won't repeat. ? about 10F
Futural: (118) 9/2 dreaded triple neg. #'s lead to Pac Classic clunker at *8/5. His return 3 weeks ago 2.1. Trainer C. Dollase is 28% 2nd off the layoff. The ? is, did the 5+ months off help negate the affect of 3 negative numbers, maybe yes........
Irisheyesareflying: (116) 15-1`has gone into the infamous good number bad number pattern with a clunker due after equalling his top of 2.0 in his last. Starting from the 12 hole with speed inside him won't help.
Western Pride: 15-1 (116) fastest horse in the race with a neg. 1.1 at Crc 10/20; ran a second neg -0.2 1/12 at SA which led to the Strub Stks disaster 8.2. He's the speed of the speed and might clear getting the ground saving trip. I'm not a fan of horses running big X's, trying a longer new distance with a suspect pedigree.
Field entry: 30-1
Last Parade (113) 6yo is too slow.
Dig For It (113) 7yo is THIRD FASTEST in the race with a couple of 0.3's including last years Pac Classic. Trainer Headley must have ingested significant amounts of mind altering drugs sending Dig For It to Japan, but he's winning at a 25% clip the last 90 days. DFI's last 3.2 is okay, he gets in light. The 0.3's have been rather random, but the last came after a 21 day layoff as today. At the odds will use him "lightly in the exotics" ;-)~ LOL
The play:
Giant Gentleman and Futural on top in tris with Fancy As, Frankel entry, Freedom Crest, Kudos and Dig For It
Exacta box GG, Futural and Freedom Crest
Good Luck to all!
bdhsheets
May they all come home safely!
bdhsheets@hotmail.com
