Ground Loss (1070 Views)

I’ve spent the last two years developing a metric to measure the effort-impact of ground loss on horses in races. I’ve determined that the impact of ground loss in a turn is significantly greater than ground loss in a straightaway by a factor of about 2-1; not precisely, but close.

Useful discoveries that I made include:
1. Mature horses run about the same number for all their races on the same surface at similar distances WHEN ADJUSTED FOR GROUND LOSS.
2. When I can clearly segment runners in a race (3 or 4 standouts with much better figures than all others in the race) I will pick the winner about 90% of the time in horizontal betting, exactas about 40% of the time and trifectas about 20% of the time.
But this is not about my betting. Let’s talk the Triple Crown races.

My adjusted ground loss numbers for Orb last year were 108 going into his Derby (slightly the top in the field) and 117 for his run in the Derby. He then crashed and burned; the jump was extreme and the bounce was in.

My adjusted numbers for California Chrome were 114 going into his Derby (by far the top in the field) and he ran another 114 in the Derby. There was NO way that he was going to bounce in the Preakness, but pending the number he earned there we may conclude that he is tailing off for the Belmont. I’m not sure yet, but I’ll let you know.