Re: Ground Loss (576 Views)

I didn't expect anyone to leap up and congratulate me for my post and I don't intend to explain or defend it, but really Jerry: somebody at TG implied in your Preakness analysis that Social Inclusion was the fastest horse in the race. That was not true then and it's not true now.

I had thought that Chrome had tailed off in the Preakness, visually speaking, but he did not. His SA Derby was slightly faster than his Ky Derby, adjusted for ground loss, and his Preakness was slightly faster. If I'm right and he's holding his form, he is about 2 - 3 lengths faster than the bunch he's running against and will likely beat them in NY.

Tied in a tight group for second behind him are Samraat, Intense Holiday and Commanding Curve. Slightly behind them is Ride on Curlin and tied for sixth slightly behind him are Social Inclusion and Tonalist.

Like the Derby and the Preakness this race isn't worth betting unless you toss the favorite and hope. That's fine if you're desperate to bet it, but it's not a strategy. Somewhere on some card at a major track is a 30- 1 shot who looks impossible due to recent races in which it lost ground substantially, but actually has the top figure in the race. I have had more than my share of them since I got serious with this last August.

Good hunting.