I'm halfway done with a project focusing on horses that run negative #'s in their 1st or 2nd start of their 3 year old campaign. I had this concept project on my "to do" list and now I'm partially done and am kicking myself, the race is upon me and this still needs some time/work before I could draw any meaningful conclusion.
Let me preface what I type here by admitting to be a hypocrite and surrendering to the combined vast knowledge of the TG host and contributors.
Again, the host and many tremendous players like Upstart, so, today I acquiesce to their collective brainpower.
This is where I'm at, and why I really struggle with Upstart today. Despite the fact that I did not/do not like Upstart today, I still find him on 19 different tickets in various positions. (True)
In the last 10 Kentucky Derby's there have been 11 horses that ran a negative number in either their 1st or 2nd start of their 3 year old campaign. Sorry to repeat. When I started to break it down into some of the other horses that ran negative numbers in their last prep prior to the Derby, it starts to get kinda ugly with names like Greeley, Bandini, American Lion, but only semi- related to what I'm posting today.
Of those 11, the only winner was Big Brown. As we agree, he laid over that field pretty good. These are the totals 11-1-0-1-1 Big Brown winning, Alex running 3rd and Brother Derek running 4th.
The horses among the 11 who failed to run well finished 6th, 7th, 11th, 11th, 12th, 14th, 15th, 20th.
Five horses ran a negative number in their 3 year old debut. They finished 3rd, 4th, 7th, 11th, 15th.
Six horses ran a negative number in the 2nd out of their 3 year old campaign. They finished 1st (BB), 6th, 11th, 12th, 14th, 20th.
Horses that ran a negative number in their last prep with a couple exceptions, Big Brown, Orb, typically got their asses handed to them in the Derby. (I have not taken time to totally complete all horses that may have run better or worst off the negative last prep race).
I also did NOT take into account spacing, number of preps prior to Derby, and a host of other factors that I would need to do in order to take a real stand against a horse(s) that look like a standout leading up to the Derby.
One quick factor I did look at was how much of a jump did these horses have from their 2 year old tops. A couple of unraced 2 year olds were Verrazano who nobody liked and ran 14th, and Dunkirk who ran 11th.
The negative number compared to the horse's 2 year old top was kinda/sorta/not really telling. The numbers range from 1 pt, 3 pts, 4 pts, 5 pts, 5 pts,
6 pts, 8 pts, 11 pts, 13 pts. Big Brown was at the high end, yet won easily. Except Brown, the huge dividing point was about 4 pts of development from the horse's 2 year old top. Again, not done with a lot of factors in this study, so be nice.
Long story short, there are 2 horses in the field today that seem to be subject to a negative result. Granted there is 2 pt or less top from their 2 year old season, so I will learn something today, but I am not prepared to lose money on an incomplete study, in case either or both run lights out. I may learn today that 2 points development is not a detriment with some animals.
Those 2 horses that ran negative numbers in their first or 2nd start of their 3 year old campaign are: American Pharoah and Upstart. The heavy chalk and the horse that lots of TGer's love. Hence, my thus far own project contradicts my multiple wagers including Pharoah and especially Upstart.
I'm gonna see what I learn today. I figure putting this out today, before the race, I will catch less hell that if there is something in this project.
Good luck to all.
