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Thoro-Graph
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"I imagine several distinct groups barring too much traffic or trouble in the first turn."
Good luck barring those two! In fact, I'll take Traffic and Trouble in an exacta box on the first turn heavier with Traffic on top!
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skitimber
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Agree with you 100%, though you forgot to mention that those betting on this race will bet on the mule races if that's all there is.
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skitimber
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Like many, I have turned away from this game more and more. But I wonder if anyone with deep pockets and a computer has compared win payoffs, say 40 years ago, to today. What was the average price back then vs today in like size fields? Has anyone compared todays and yesteryears final odds (say all the 6 to 5 horses) to their actual return over an entire year at all tracks or each track (for
by
skitimber
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Yes the social component is important but when it feels tougher and tougher to get a fair shot, it just isn't as enjoyable. Living in NY, I went to every Belmont Stakes from '74 (missed Secretariat by a year) through 2002 and out to Belmont at least a dozen Saturday's a year. The cost of a great seat at Belmont for all (or just about all) those years, including the Belmont stakes
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skitimber
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Florent Geroux, having a great weekend so far, must have boxed horses other than his own in the Iroquois taking the 10, the 4/5 favorite, to the rail for a majority of the trip. Did I say he was having a great weekend?
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skitimber
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Over much more than Covid! Sorry about getting a bit political, but defunding the po and then claiming the po doesn't have enough money to handle mail in ballots properly . . . now that's a longer term threat than Covid!
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skitimber
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If there had been one other $2 ticket on the winning combo, instead of winning one half of $173,000, he would have won 80% of it. If there had been $8 in winning tickets in addition to his, a single $2 ticket would have basically been a breakeven proposition (20% of $173,000) With his $8, he would have won half.
If you're playing $30,000, that's an investment and a huge risk and th
by
skitimber
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A lidocaine patch works like an icy hot patch and looks/feels identical. I use them for back pain all the time and you peel off a thin plastic sheet on the back of the patch so it then sticks on your back. I don't get any of the medication on my hands. The medication might be slightly different than lidocaine, but the patches work exactly the same way. Hard to imagine getting any of the
by
skitimber
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Sunday Silence. And why couldn't they have had the virtual race call by a virtual (30 year younger voice of) Tom Durkin. At least then the call would have been better than the race itself!
by
skitimber
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And don't forget the third half . . . racing luck!
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skitimber
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Not trying to offend and I wasn't comparing a single 40 - 1 shot to a single 5 - 1.
I was comparing a single 40 - 1 vs. SIX 5-1's.
We're assuming that the one guy gave you a single selection and the other gave you six selections, and all seven horses hit.
Just looking at the odds against both: one is 40-1 while the other is 15625 to 1.
That's not even close.
If yo
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skitimber
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Not sure if this was overlooked or someone else commented. If so, my apologies.
So many reasons to prefer hitting six 5-1's than one 40-1.
a) More plays.
b) More money (yes, more money!) Just letting your winnings ride on a 3 horse parlay would get you 125-1. Six in a row: 15625 - 1!!! Better than 40-1.
c) If you bet big on a 40-1 shot, you would cut down the odds far more than on
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skitimber
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But this way, unless I'm missing something, B and C identical. Maybe add ABC?
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skitimber
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Imagine if you start with that 94 to 95 cents and then (not easy) get rid of just a few false favorites. The point is that it is a good place to start looking for solid bets (with no takeout, you could make a great living just betting favorites) and, conversely, when you bet against the favorite, you are effectively up against an even greater takeout than what's posted.
Not sure if it s
by
skitimber
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Storyteller vs. (Carnival) Barker
The storyteller wins by an ever widening 31 lengths. Collmus should be
aSHAMed!
by
skitimber
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Haven't been to track in ages but used to live there and if you are a Marriott points user, go to the Marriott site and the Sheraton Eatontown (Sheraton now Marriott) only 17500 points per night while the hotel is over $400 per night. This is a definite points overlay. Sorry about your dad and have fun. Would give anything to have my father back for a day at the races, win or lose!
by
skitimber
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And the longest shot !!!!) on the board won! Makes you wonder as 2.3-1 a nice ROI on a sure thing!
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skitimber
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Who cares about horse performance? Worry about yours or you will be Mr Unlucky!!! Go there when it's nice. If you can't relax (and 95+ is NOT relaxing) even if you do perform (and odds go down with every degree) you won't enjoy the experience. You'll be wondering where you can get cool as opposed to watching the horses or tote. Stay home and pick your best races. Then,
by
skitimber
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About 5-1:
266 - 43.60 = $222.40 in winnings on a $43.60 bet = 5.1 - 1
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skitimber
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"I'll take a chance most wouldn't and put him on top."
Hope you're correct about "most". Hoping not many at all. Opened at 9-1 and that would be a nice price on this one.
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skitimber
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Whatever is going to happen will happen regardless of our bet and if the BC doesn't happen, you will at least have enriched a charity by $300! As far as your counteroffer, I honestly can't do a head to head - "sadly" I'm on a cruise from Oct 17 - Nov 10:
so won't be doing anything with the races unless they can miraculously bring up live racing on those two d
by
skitimber
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Friendly wager:
BC held in 2019, you donate $100 to a charity I choose.
BC not held in 2019, I donate $300 to a charity you choose.
No religion, politics nor pets!
Deal?
by
skitimber
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Given your mention of Donald Trump, two words from his sidekick Kellyanne Conway come to mind regarding the Times in decline: Alternative fact.
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skitimber
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