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Thoro-Graph
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Great stuff today...appreciate you helping build up my Derby bankroll.
You and the team have had a very impressive start to the weekend!!
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jwbcardinals
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Honestly I don't think Baffert is an outlier, and in a multi-million dollar competitive industry everyone is skirting the rules while looking for an edge. Baffert is similar to baseball players using steroids (McGwire admitted it and was still allowed to be a coach), the Houston Astros and Yankees stealing signs in baseball (but still keeping their championship), Patriots various cheating s
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jwbcardinals
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I've been a strong Prat follower watching how aggressive he rides, especially at the finish line. He's been dominant at his home base in SOCAL with a big year so far with over 150 wins to date and nearly $13M in purses.
I am not sure how well his successes come through on his TG performance metrics, as it might not correlate into new tops...but seemingly he gets a little more out o
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jwbcardinals
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Many trends fade away over the years while some remain relevant. I am curious if there is a consistent opinion relating to birth month, and how that might relate to timing of development between 2yo to 3yo. Several years ago I grabbed this data (admittedly not mine, I think from someone on this board) and am wondering how it could be a factor for TG development in early May.
Obviously form
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jwbcardinals
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That is why I found it interesting looking at the Asmussen stats for first start after the trainer change.
Of the 1335 starts he has had first time with a new horse, he has won 20% of those races and ITM for half.
And if I am reading this correctly...more of these horses run a new top (16%) than his rate of new tops for his other horses (14%)...am I reading that correctly off his sheet?
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jwbcardinals
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Ha, thanks for that. I admit that my comments were unsubstantiated suppositions, so I can't defend the veracity of my assertions.
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jwbcardinals
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Disappointing to see Art Collector out of the KD!
If you think Tiz was overly cranked to get Sackatoga the big NY races and not able to hold his tight conditioning for 3 months...the tote board could explode this year.
It isn't normal these days for a horse to run back 10f as quickly as he will be this year. And he likely will not be saving any ground. Not saying he will bounce (no evi
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jwbcardinals
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I think it is a mistake to dismiss him based on City Zip. Improbable gets a ton of depth from his female line. With his dam coming out of AP Indy, and his second dam is a sister to Hard Spun.
Looking back, there were some questions about the breeding of Always Dreaming, Nyquist, American Pharoah, and California Chrome. Would have been foolish to arbitrarily omitted those horses who had ru
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jwbcardinals
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The only reason I included the 50-1 longshot Summer Spice in the 6th at Gulfstream was the TG analysis.
Made for a heck of a trifecta!!!
Thanks for helping top off my NYRA account...you guys rock!
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jwbcardinals
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I was in Vegas yesterday and stopped by the Wynn.
They have 6 horses single-digits to win the KD. I don't think the real odds will be that compact.
Shockingly they have Justify as 8-1 to win the Triple Crown. How is that a logical bet?
I think it is important to recognize that their approach is different and don't follow the same methodology that Fairmont is using.
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jwbcardinals
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"When I first got her, she was sick, so I missed some (training) days with her and took it easy with her," Baffert said. "I was going to run her in Arkansas, but with Unique Bella out (of the Santa Anita Oaks), I thought she'd be good enough to beat those, but I didn't know they had another stealth missile in there.
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jwbcardinals
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It all clicked to me about Pletcher today when I read this story. Finally he provided some clarity to something many of us have speculated.
This is why I just can't pick a TAP horse to win the KD. It's not just the 1 for 45 stat...but his approach. He clearly focuses on getting his owners into the starting gate for the KD for the experience...not focusing on the winners circle. H
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jwbcardinals
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Looking back at Tampa...John V rode both Destin and Outwork on Feb 13th. He was on Outwork for a 6f OCl, and then rode Destin to victory in the SF Davis.
Interestingly enough, Velasquez chose to ride Outwork over Destin in the Tamp Bay Derby. They obviously ran 1-2 in that race, with Castellano in the irons for Destin.
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jwbcardinals
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Destin - 8 years ago
I am curious your thoughts on Destin. Obviously his TG number for the TB Derby was huge, and his performance was flattered by subsequent wins by others (Outwork, Brody's Cause).
I remembered reading about TAP's runners off layoffs. There was a story last year from Beyer that shows he is 31% in stakes races off a layoff as opposed to 21% on what we would consider "normal"
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jwbcardinals
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Tri
Frosted/CarpeDiem
Frost/CD/Dort/Upstart
Those 4 + AP/Danzig/It's/Bolo
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jwbcardinals
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I am still relatively new to TG, but am convinced this is the best dataset in the industry. I loved the seminar, and your insights on Upstart are compelling. Can anyone explain how he is currently in the mid 30's-1?
The post isn't great, but neither is it for AP, and he is still receiving a lot of cash.
There is obviously going to be some shifting in the odds, but by mid-after
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jwbcardinals
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