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Thoro-Graph
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TGJB,
Obviously respect your opinions as I but your numbers but:
"banks hill ran exactly back to the figure...." - then your figure is wrong. that piece of form (with clear sailing between 1,2,3,4,5 finishers - with 2nd to 5th going on to run great races next out) was exceptional and to compare it to an effort where she basically finished in the pack (I believe there were 6/7 horses i
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Mall,
in terms of early speed, my view is that the sprint needs to be handicapped twice - 1. what if they kill each other upfront and 2. what if they don't. Doesn't mean you have to bet all the combos (in fact you shouldn't) but I think that in exotics you need to play a bit of both with key horses. as an example at CD 2 years ago this worked beautifully when early speed was dia
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Michael - best at 12/1 with ladbrokes - unfortunately ladbrokes are well known for inside knowledge on o'brien's yard so the fact that he is high with them may mean they know something we don't about ROG going for the mile (ladbrokes are the only ones that do not have ROG in the classic betting).
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Bill,
I also compliment you for the analysis keep them coming. Interestingly here in europe good journey has come in for some good money and is now the shortest price of the americans at 10/1.
I have already touted domedriver as my key here and the ground worries me a little more than the LH turn (based on many misspent years I actually think it's harder for a horse to go from LH to RH th
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Michael,
re O'brien's 2 year olds - here they have been getting too much respect all year. with the mid-summer virus and all that he has not had good 2-year old results. van nistelrooy has been hype galore from the word go - any self respecting bookie has been wanting to lay him. he has been beaten favorite last two starts (admittedly poor ride in last one)- he's good, not great
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Well, after a few years in the US, living the BC from Europe is quite different. Back on the site to purchase the advances and hope that all the shrewd comments on the board will help me get back in touch with US racing. I am biased now but it looks like the Euros will take home some prizes:
a poor Turf field - high chapparal can bounce slightly from his arc return outing and still win (though f
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I am not sure belmont is that track (the one that gives a closer a fair chance). There is no doubt in my mind that a belmont 12f race favors speed in terms of bias - probably outside speed by then. many people assume that closers will make a big run on the turn and keep coming, but they nearly always flatten out - that distance being a particularly good example of this in the last 2-3 years.
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have not read JB analysis yet but straight gin seems a stretch to me. a pure figure play (perhaps, I remember he had a 2 or something - suckered me into playing him in the bg) but no other evidence to me that he is this class or that he is moving forward. he was outclassed at op and kee - yes they are speed favoring but he was on or near the lead !
the other zito horse would interest me more
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good analysis - it seems to me that those that skipped the derby lack a bit of class. Perhaps proud citizen has one more decent number (even if he goes back a little) - after all he's only run one race under 4. He ran a 6 at 2 so not out of the question he could hang around this level one more time.
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even more than ready ran great in the derby (4th) yet was a sprinter - in class races sometimes you ran out of your skin because of company (I can't explain this - but I've seen it). I would bet against came home at 9f in top class company, no doubt in my mind. he will be 4th or 5th in the breeders cup sprint.
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Beyer top for WE (114). With all that weight (ignored by Beyer) looks like a big number is coming up.
Incidentally, am I the only one who thinks it's strange that McCarron will be on Crimson Hero in the Preakness. JDB rode last and it's not like he's got 3yr old riches. Either he doesn't like his chances or he's hoping for a jock change on the big ones. I say he'
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I think that you can argue both theories (he won only because of the pace OR that he won so easily that it didn't matter)with some validity. Either way, as I look at the replay it was definitely one weird race (I still expect someone, just anyone, to make some kind of move on the turn - totally baffling).
so many questions to answer: can he hold his form after 3 efforts ? will someone chal
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Mark,
You're probably right we're restless, but then again it is clear that the vast majority of people on this board are more into numbers than you are. You've probably already made your post mortem judgement (using visual clues) and moved on - others may still need "closure". Incidentally I was interested in your comments on how WE looked after the race - I distinctl
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and how do you know if a stock is going to go up ?
there are too many variables (age, sex, distance, size of jump, previous reactions, time since race, trainer(sadly), etc etc)in bounces and ultimately you will have to use your judgement to determine the LIKELIHOOD of a bounce and factor that in the price you're getting. We've all seen horses that seemed sure to bounce that didn'
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I'm guessing WE ran fater than that. A top class thoroughbred on an easy lead will post a big number - he destroyed them and it's hard to believe he didn't better his SPT effort.
And when we were being hard on Mark O' for repent not closing on WE, perhaps we were looking at the derby 1-2 (injury permitting).
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I read (bought) Jerry's analysis and it definitely would have helped people to win. Most people putting a fresh bet on derby day (as opposed to futures) could have worked out that WE was way better value than PD, Saa, MO and the rest. I read "The Sheets" analysis and it would have made a loser of pretty much everybody using it. Keep posting and perhaps it will sink in.
P.S. when
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Bobe chip excuse seems like clutching at straws. He ran poorly partly because they all came out of the gate walking (and I mean walking, I still can't believe it when I watch it again on tape) and yet he was 10 lengths behind after half a furlong. I knew it was over then. I like Johnny V. but that seemed like having a plan and not being flexible enough to adapt it to the circumstances. Stil
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easy grades - I'll leave this one out. Not sure he has the bottom that saarland has for that move forward. Also did not finish well at SA. Stevens was in a hurry to get off him and his penchant for going wide (it now seems that bridle thing was nonsense) will not help him. You've got to draw the line and if he beats me, so be it.
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Chris,
Monarchos went wide on the second turn not the first. Yet he broke from 16 and was all alone on the first turn. If you like a closer you just have to accept he will go wide on the second turn and will need a better number than the rest to win (and luck). You have to factor it in the price. Post position matters squat to me.
With a stalker/speedster I would be more worried about post
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please, please run. was it tabor that did the rabbit thing in the florida derby......???
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he was reported by multiple sources (including haskin on bloodhorse) to have looked "dull" last week. However, I am sad to see that he was reported today as having looked pretty good yesterday ("the best gallop out of the day").
like I said I treat reports with a pinch of salt (especially positive reports - these are the best 3yr olds in the country, they're supposed
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I believe that before the Ark. Derby Asmussen said that Private Emblem needed time between his races (I think he was going in with 6 weeks rest). You can file that with all the other garbage you will hear, or use it, it's up to you. Sure hasn't looked good so far at CD.
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before the CD work, he worked a bullet 4f in 47 and change at BEL (over a very fast track though). For what it's worth the exercise rider has gone on record saying he is much happier and a better worker after the surgery. take with a pinch of salt, like everything else that will be written from now on.
and it's buddha not buddah. By mispelling it people are removing my gigantic ne
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well, Jo'burg is a best priced 12/1 in England and nobody is rushing to the windows. You'd expect him to be a shorter price there than here, so you'll get your double digits I guess.
Incidentally the bookmakers Ladbrokes (known as the "magic sign" because their inside information usually turns out to be right) have him and castle gandolfo at the same price (10/1), which
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HP,
I know the "tough to throw out a price" angle, but in the derby you will have to take a stand, otherwise you will have a dozen in the minor spots. For me blue burner has not done enough in the stretch to merit inclusion - granted he has good numbers but has flattened out in both the FD and wood. Not sure he can be a factor late as most people are worried of. Lusty latin has been
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"staying"is a function of company. came home would beat me at 10 furlongs, that wouldn't mean he stayed. He won at 9f because he was so much classier than the rest. Can that happen at 10f ? you've got to doubt it unless he is truly great (and the rest are truly average). It can happen but it's the kind of bet that would probably make you poor in the long run.
he remi
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very good article in SI about coolmore. partly makes you scared about going against them but on the other hand the breeding part suggests that they had no choice but to send jo'burg (they are missing a dirt sire and the upside in having jo'burg be a BC and derby winner is unlimited for the US market).
now that kinane is out, I think we'll get the first good inside read on jo'
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as I mentioned a while back - we're all picking the same horses (I hate being on the wiseguy horses). luckily we'll be peanuts in the pool.
if mayakosvy runs badly tomorrow (which he might well do) wonder how many will jump off the saarland boat.
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that is missing the first left hand column when I print the online sheets (luckily I know what "urf to dirt" and "print to route" are but it's a little annoying).
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