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Thoro-Graph
You're welcome. By the way, on Formulator, this takes 15 seconds per trainer if you miss the light.
Here are the stats for horses making their first start after being claimed away from Baffert:
Last five years:
Starters: 50
Win pct: 12%
ITM pct: 40%
ROI for $2 bet: .94
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Rich Curtis
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I tried exactly this on Formulator a couple of years ago and it seemed to work:
Find a race where Bob Jones has a horse entered.
Get Formulator for that race. (Try not to pay for it. DRF gives out samples from time to time, I believe.)
Scroll to that horse.
Click on "Bob Jones."
Click on "modify filters."
Click on "first after claimed FROM."
Clic
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Rich Curtis
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Formulator would be an umbrella.
Redboard Room here is, I think, the best way, but it will take a little more effort.
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Rich Curtis
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"So the propaganda 'reporting' worked perfectly on you Rich, eh? Ridiculous that an editorialization with 50% of the story is accepted as fact."
Please do not "understand" me too quickly, Steve. I was careful not to say one word about the reporting. My one and only goal was to ridicule your ridiculous post.
Does this ludicrous "legal summary" provide
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Rich Curtis
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And now we have an agenda-driven "legal summary" (priceless, Steve).
"The attorney for Ms. Rojas considers this decision a resounding victory for not only Rojas but also for all horsemen."
Yes, we have our role models back.
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Rich Curtis
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Come on, John. You know Eddie D from the Derby List. He does marketing now.
He knows these sorts of polls are total nonsense.
Seriously, there was once a question going around about who was the best "finisher," and Eddie D got himself into trouble by giving as his answer the name of a famous porn star.
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Rich Curtis
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"I'm curious why you've decided to make what, for you, is practically a ubiquitous return to posting, here, after an extended AWOL period."
I'm not sure I even want to know, Moose. My theory is that if people really knew why they did stuff, they would always be too afraid to do stuff. But I'd guess that the answer is some mixture of disliking announced (and announ
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Rich Curtis
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Before the race, "class" is used as a lazy substitute for the real reasons why the handicapper likes a certain horse.
After the race, no matter who the winner is, "class" is used to explain why the winner won.
It's a rigged verbal game, rigged entirely in favor of class. That is what makes it so telling that class handicapping has lost so much of its popularity over
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Rich Curtis
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Yes, you have to feel for Baffert. He must have been sorely tempted to give his 3YOs only a half-dose of juice for the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont, and try to finish 2nd, while risking a win that would have brought him attention, which he has always shunned.
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Rich Curtis
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What are you trying to do? Put message boards out of business?
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Rich Curtis
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BBB wrote:
"Five pounds equals one point at All distances seems a dubious assertion to me."
You are quite confused, BBB. If you go to the TG Introduction page and read about how the length-value of a point varies according to the distance of the race, it will clear up your confusion--at least about this particular matter.
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Rich Curtis
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"I just wanted to dig at BBB a bit."
I am all for that, Richiebee. But given that BBB has shown that he has a pro-class, anti-sheet agenda, I would not pass up an opportunity to dig at him Thorographically in a race that is so ripe for doing so by the book. No need to read any break on this putt.
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Rich Curtis
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Richiebee,
This is not a race that I particularly enjoy reliving, but your calculations here are mucked up something awful by today's weight and groundloss, among other things. Please try this: Forget the top/pair/off bit. It is not built for this. Instead, being very conservative, simply plug in a projected figure, today's weight, and today's odds for each horse:
Like this:
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Rich Curtis
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I couldn't even name the kid, let alone the movie. My mom says it has to be Hud. And if you have a 3rd movie question for her, she'll think it's Mother's Day.
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Rich Curtis
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I didn't know. I asked my mom, who is an encyclopedia on these matters. She asked me if you know that This Gun For Hire is better than Citizen Kane.
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Rich Curtis
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Richiebee wrote:
"Rich, I do not believe I am a major or even minor offender in terms of insults."
I agree entirely. That's why I wrote that stuff about the Richiebee Rule. It contained neither irony nor sarcasm. The only person I remember you really insulting with a heavy hand is Ken Sherman. And since he once said, with typical (nay, Shermanesque) understatement, that I am
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Rich Curtis
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"Does that make richiebee Karl Popper?"
We'll find out when I suggest that he and I play poker.
"Additional figures don't help much, as it's pretty well established that any string of numbers is compatible with being part of an infinite number of patterns."
Down this road lies:
1: The impossibility of making decent speed figures using the method emp
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Rich Curtis
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Well, my comment was textbook irony. The question is whether it was bitter or harsh enough to qualify as sarcasm too. Do you see the problem I had? If I call the post sarcasm, I violate the Richiebee rule (as presented on the Rags board), which states that insults should always be as subtle as possible.
Anyway, I always look forward to your posts, Richiebee, but I have a question for you: Why
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Rich Curtis
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Three-year-olds are too lightly raced to have forward-moving patterns.
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Rich Curtis
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JB:
Do you think the inside was golden on Derby day?
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Rich Curtis
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The word "paceline" has taken on different meanings over the years. Not all of them involve pace. It is possible he is simply asking how he can tell which previous TG figure the horse is most likely to run back to today.
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Rich Curtis
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"such as Slew losing to the older Affirmed, and Slew beating the younger Bid, etc."
Plainly, you have examined this issue closely. What would your "etc." bring? Dewey beating JFK?
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Rich Curtis
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Your history is not an exact science either.
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Rich Curtis
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"Went back to look at link and the incident is no longer on the stewards' minutes. Go figure, truly might still be Wild Wild West."
Either that or you looked at the wrong day. The horse went on to win the race, by the way.
D’AMATO INFORMAL HEARING
Trainer Phil D’Amato and his assistant Rudy Cruz met with the Stewards to discuss an incident that happened yesterday in his shed
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Rich Curtis
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"Either his horses run off the screen or they fall down."
This is total nonsense. But if it were not total nonsense, wouldn't it present a great betting opportunity?
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Rich Curtis
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Bobphilo wrote:
"Just 2 races are hardly a large enough sample to calculate a pace par."
That was not my point, Bobphilo. This was:
You were giving this lecture:
"You know better than using pace figures for 1-turn races at shorter distances to determine a pace par for the longer 2-turn marathon Belmont distance. As this was the only race on dirt at the distance you ha
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Rich Curtis
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Jimbo:
Read the response you made to Bobphilo when he said that there was only one 12F dirt race on Saturday.
As for the unnamed pace figures that support your case, I am not sure how to cross-examine a star witness who has a brown paper bag over his head.
"I have two figures, one average and one below par."
Actually, you have three. Two of them have names.
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Rich Curtis
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Jimbo had posted the following:
"Look at pace figures for the Belmont, it was a VERY slow pace."
And both Jimbo and Bobphilo made several posts on this subject while unaware that there were two 12F dirt races at Belmont on Saturday.
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Rich Curtis
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