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Thoro-Graph
Miff: Again, I totally agree with you on there being no rabbit. A rabbit does not care how long the race is. That is what makes him a rabbit. The Belmont had no rabbit.
Moss has the race shape: average early, fast mid, average late.
CJ has the pace as fast.
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Rich Curtis
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I agree, Miff. That was no rabbit. But you can have a relatively fast pace without a rabbit. Anyway, I was hoping you'd quote some pace figures so I don't have to.
by
Rich Curtis
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Jimbo wrote: "Do you have reputable pace figures for Saturday?
I do. The pace was not fast."
Which ones are you looking at?
by
Rich Curtis
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"As this was the only race on dirt at the distance "
What about race 4?
by
Rich Curtis
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"As someone who deals with civil fraud and the forensic work that often goes with it,it is impossible--not difficult-impossible-to keep the type of behavior we are talking about "secret"and not have one or more disgruntled employees rat someone out."
How can you know this?
by
Rich Curtis
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"I agree that he is the strongest closer in the field but my concern is that this was the case in all his previous races and he still didn't get up in time even with the fast paces."
That's not true, Bobphilo. How many times did he finish first?
by
Rich Curtis
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Seattle Slew had to beat himself in that Derby. It was a monstrous performance, Ragozin and Beyer notwithstanding. Everybody should watch the replay. Seattle Slew made it very easy to forget the names of his opponents.
by
Rich Curtis
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I tried to read it that way, but I did not think that reading worked for even one second:
"Why do we accept that some guys, to an extent that we can't know about, are cheating? In what other gambling venture would we accept that?"
In what gambling venture can we say we are free of it?
by
Rich Curtis
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How do you and they know that all of the cheaters get caught?
by
Rich Curtis
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"Cheat at poker, kicked out of the club for life is your best possible outcome."
How do you know that?
by
Rich Curtis
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"The mile maiden win he was 2nd for maybe a while against nothing."
Watch the race, Silver Charm.
by
Rich Curtis
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Cupid came from behind in his first three races. He broke his maiden from behind.
by
Rich Curtis
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I believe DRF indicates Claimproof in O/Cs by displaying a large "N" at the far right of the race conditions in the PPs. Another way to tell is to check the historical results charts at BRIS or Equibase. They list claiming prices.
by
Rich Curtis
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In a crowded field, this ROTW-tossing-favorites complaint is one of the most ridiculous ones ever to appear on this board. Next up, someone will probably complain that the ROTW is intimating that people should never play non-stakes races, should never play races on weekdays, or should play only one race a week.
by
Rich Curtis
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"When TG tries to beat the favorite in ROTW every
week, it is TG intimating that "all favorites are
created equal", in that they all stink and can be
tossed."
Rick: On a typical weekend, across the country, how many favorites do they try to beat, and how many favorites do they not try to beat?
by
Rich Curtis
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From a post a year ago on Steve Byk's website:
Victor Espinoza in dirt routes:
Since 1998:
Overall: 2,438 mounts, 19% wins, $2.11 ROI
Maiden races: 612 mounts, 18% wins, $2.03 ROI
Claiming races: 720 mounts, 21% wins, $2.09 ROI
Allowance races: 428 mounts, 17% wins, $2.21 ROI
Stakes races: 509 mounts, 18% wins, $2.13 ROI
by
Rich Curtis
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Espinoza has some interesting stats. Check them out on AP's sheet.
by
Rich Curtis
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"Not sure why you want to pick a fight on this."
Yeah, those two questions I asked you were quite an assault.
by
Rich Curtis
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"The Glass half empty would be that Firing Line is 1 1/8 horse at best and he just ran out of breeding the end of the race, which is why he got beat."
How big of a top did Firing Line need to run at 10F to prove that 9F is not his limit?
Also: In the Derby, if Stevens had taken him back farther early, and then closed late to finish in exactly the same place and earn exactly the sa
by
Rich Curtis
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"Does snorting vs non-snorting mean anything?"
Only a non-snorter would think to ask such a question.
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Rich Curtis
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Sekrah:
Why would the Belmont possibly being a bad (or a good) betting race affect your decision about betting the Preakness?
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Rich Curtis
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"The whole card is typically a chalkiest. It's just not for me."
Knowing in advance what the winners will pay seems like a pretty big advantage. Maybe you should reconsider.
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Rich Curtis
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Furious Pete wrote:
"have you ever done some studies where you've been trying to "weigh down" the effects of paths to the figures from turns were there have been obviously a slow pace (it really should almost only apply to the 1st turn)? I think those races may be the most notorious producers of what I've seen Miff been calling "ground-loaded" figures or some
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Rich Curtis
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"Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan. Two great books by Nassim Nicholas Taleb I think relevant to investing in horse races."
You're OK, Eljayar. Add "Antifragile" and you have the three best horse racing books ever written.
by
Rich Curtis
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Yes, the legislation is obviously meaningless, but if you're talking about Kevin Cummins here, to what extent do you still have his ear?
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Rich Curtis
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