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Thoro-Graph
Jerry,
In looking ahead to the 2 Breeder's Cup Days, I'm throwing out a suggestion for you.
How bout you take 10 of your top TG Board guys and have each of them give their analysis of 1 race each day and include it with your BC materials? In lieu of their analysis, maybe you could each of them the price of that Day's Sheets?
I think it potentially adds more perspective to the r
by
smalltimer
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Zenyatta's splits from last weekend:
24 4/5
23 4/5
23 1/5
22 3/5
final 1/16th in .06 flat
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smalltimer
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Silver,
Zenyatta has been pointed toward the Lady's Classic from the very beginning. John has no interest in butting heads with the males.
If John changes his mind on Zenyatta and enters her in the Classic, I'll send you an apology. Henrythenavigator and the Duke, if they come, will make the Classic a lot tougher race than people realize.
Good luck
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smalltimer
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She's gonna be going on Friday. I agree, we're not gonna see her in the Classic.
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smalltimer
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P. Biancone had the horse until Oct 7 of '07 at Kee, then the horse went to Francois Parisel for one out at Kee on Oct 27 of '07.
Arnold has had him for 2 outs, both at AP and both on the turf. Last out was a Grade 3 on the turf at AP.
Shows multiple works between the timie Parisel had him and he reappeared under Arnold's care, so it would unknown how long Arnold has had him
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smalltimer
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Spirit One may not be within shouting distance at the end of the Goodwood, but he is gonna excel on that Pro Ride surface.
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smalltimer
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Here are her preceding workouts prior to the Jan 21 race:
Nov 24 FG 3f 36b 2/22
Oct 7 Del 5f 100.1B 2/18
Sept 3 Del 3f 3B 2/7
Aug 28 Del 5f 100.3 Bg 5/14
Aug 12 Del 5f 104B 20/24
Jul 25 Del 5f 101.1 Bg 6/19
Jul 11 Del 4f 49Bg 2/33
That's as far back as I can go.
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smalltimer
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Her races prior to Jan 21 were:
Dec 23 FG 1 mile 40 yards Alw race
Nov 30 FG 1 mile Alw race
Oct 30 Del 1 mile 70 yards MSW
Oct 15 Del 1 mile 1/16 MSW
Sep 16 Del 5.5f MSW
I can probably look up the workouts between races if you really need them.
by
smalltimer
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They looked like very strong contenders, so I couldn't dismiss them in my exotics. From my perspective, it's helpful.
Good luck to all.
by
smalltimer
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I'm gonna double key Hammock 12/1 and Picou 15/1 over several in here.
I'm taking a shot at some supers with Parc Des Princes 3/1, Big Stick 8/1, Al Nasr Dream 12/1, Extra Zip 15/1, Baletti 7/2 underneath.
Real tough race and I probably should just stay out of it.
I'm playing a little Pick 3 starting in Race 6 with both Hammock and Picou to Sir Lowry/Prussian/Whata Ya Mean t
by
smalltimer
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I'm gonna play Mambo over Da Tara/Cool Coal/Colonel John.
Then Colonel John over Da Tara/Cool Coal/Mambo and have some rooting interest.
Good luck to all.
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smalltimer
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You mean like assigning a "synthetic" win/itm percentage while ignoring the results from each separate surface? The truth is: these separate surfaces can't be grouped as one surface, they must be treated separately.
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smalltimer
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There are exceptions, but statistically most BC races are won on 49 days rest.
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smalltimer
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BIG DEAL.....
I've hit the Suburban every year but 2 since 1902, and with a lot better ROI.
Just kidding, in case anyone misses Chuckles.
Nice hit guys!!!
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smalltimer
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Why would there be a dispute on a negative dollar amount?
Clearly a $6M loss exceeds the $17M in surcharges that go directly into the coffers.... r-i-g-h-t?
Is there any doubt this will "sunset" in a couple years?
When's the last time a local/state/federal increase went away? Typically, one-time means...FOREVER.
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smalltimer
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JB,
Statistics are like bikinis...
What they reveal is suggestive, what they conceal is vital.
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smalltimer
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I think the current format is how it should be. Winning the TC should be almost impossible. Why change the spacing between races or the distances? Doesn't that cheapen the "accomplishment?"
If a horse wins the triple crown, they always have the opportunity to take on the older horses and prove their greatness, even if they beat a weak crop of 3 year olds in that particular year
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smalltimer
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JB,
I ran 2-3-4-5 in the race and threw Brown out of everything, and I wouldn't call my play brilliant. lol
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smalltimer
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girly,
I doubt that JB thinks his Belmont analysis was brilliant.
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smalltimer
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If NY allowed the TSD's/Cornell Collars like Ohio, Florida and Nebraska there would be some real surprises with horses performances.
I totally agree miff, if those suits had a clue, they would know info like that will cause cappers to either upgrade or downgrade TOE.
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smalltimer
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I was only quoting what the trainer said back in Feb.
Its racing industry mentality that a mild medication like Bute would be against the rules but the steroids are legal. Makes perfect sense.
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smalltimer
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kfach,
I'm limited in what I know about CD's trainer, but here goes:
He is the leading trainer in Japan;
CD is being trained the same way as he was trained in Japan;
CD will not run on Lasix but Fujisawa says he "may" run with Bute;
He trained Symboli Rudolph, a winner of 7 Grade 1 races including the Japanese Triple Crown.
Not much help, but this guy obviously thinks th
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smalltimer
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Electro, you're welcome.
What other type of Belmont data would you like to see? And compared to what other types of races? (Maybe I can send it PTP so I don't tie up the board).
I can say with the BC Fillies on dirt at 9f, with the EXCEPTION of Ashado in '04, I've been fortunate to really hammer Round Pond and Pleasant Home, and just missed last year with Hystericalady
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smalltimer
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Below are the following past several Ky Derby and BC Classic winners Average Winning Distances for both the Sire and the Dam's Sire:
Race Winner Sire AWD Dam's Sire AWD
'04 Classic Ghostzapper 7.4 6.9
'05 Classic Saint Liam 7.1 7.5
'06 Classic Invasor 7.4 8.4
'07 Classic
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smalltimer
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kfach,
I confess, that's exactly what I do. When I find something real strong I generally know I'm playing the horse in that race its just a matter of how I want to play it. I'm rarely gonna look a gift horse in the mouth, especially at strong odds.
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smalltimer
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My point is, he makes no sense. Just arbitrarily says, "play turf."
Doesn't say anything about filtering those starters to reach a positive ROI.
Besides, what is their collective differences when comparing their dirt numbers to their turf numbers?
And what % do those move up trainers have when comparing their dirt to their turf numbers? Just another general statement with no
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smalltimer
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That's an interesting concept considering Clemente, Mott, Motion, Shug and Tagg are collectively 792 wins in 3,940 starts (20.1% Win) over the last 2 years.
Not including the fact that ALL 5 trainers show a negative ROI in turf races.
Clement -0.36, Mott -0.26, Motion -0.12, Shug -0.05, Tagg -0.33.
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smalltimer
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In Catalano's case, these were primarily horses running at Tampa Bay and owned by Frank Calabrese, they were then moved to Catalano in Chicago. So, the numbers I use are correct.
This is just an overview. If I'm making a play, its based on multi-year research.
Thanks for the input
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smalltimer
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If you compare Catalano's numbers on the first time off the claim, versus the first time he takes over on a training switch, he's even higher percentage.
Last 30 days 4 takeovers, 3 wins, 100% ITM;
Last 90 days 12 takeovers, 8 wins, 92% ITM;
Last 6 months 17 takeovers, 10 wins, 82% ITM;
Last Year 34 takeovers, 19 wins, 82% ITM,
Last 2 years 58 takeovers, 26 wins, 79% ITM.
Cata
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