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Thoro-Graph
Michael D.
I may have used poor wording when I said, "I will say the Bris is a lot more indepth than what is being portrayed in here." If it came off as I was comparing the Bris methodology to Thoro, that wasn't the intent.
What I've read from most of the guys who post here is that Bris doesn't factor in as many variables as Thoro, that could be true, however, I'
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EJXD2,
Unless I misunderstand what you're saying... Are you under the impression that Keeneland has a "massively" shorter stretch than where Tomcito ran in the Fla Derby at Gulfstream?
I apologize if I've read that incorrectly, but the stretch at Gulfstream is 952' and the stretch at Keeneland is 1,236' or 284' l-o-n-g-e-r.
On a side note, that's a small
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TGJB,
I'm well versed on the Bris methodology regarding pace figures and what type variants they use. I'm a complete novice on how you arrive at your figures.
I will say the Bris is a lot more indepth than what is being portrayed in here.
Regarding your Race Shapes product, I predict you will have to separate the Poly races from the synthetic tracks, as the synthetics are "diff
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EJXD2,
I got a question for you. How much difference is there between the length of the stretch at Keeneland versus Gulfstream? It might surprise you.
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TGJB,
You can look at that a couple of different ways.
If you have a group of 10 horses, with good dirt speed, but with limited Poly ability, I'll take the proven Poly pedigree most of the time. Why? Because when the majority of the field can't stand up on Poly, and my debut runner is out of a high producing bloodlines, sometimes they don't have to be that good to take the purs
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Michael D.
Thanks for the question. In the last couple years, I've charted and researched thousands and thousands of artificial surface races. The conclusions that I've arrived at are all documented from the beginning.
One of the strange things about artificial is the skipping a generation type thing where the son of a sire isn't below average on certain surfaces, but his off
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Miff, apparently I am speaking Greek in the room.
My point was, if a handicapper "assumes" a high percentage of Poly races are won off the pace, then why wouldn't a horse jump up with an additional 300' to work with?
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Alm, one need go no further than Monba for me to make my point. He is out of an Easy Goer mare. No doubt, this horse likes the Poly.
One of the top Poly sires anywhere is Unbridled Jet, out of Unbridled, by an Easy Goer Mare named Easy Summer.
I'd have zero hesitation in playing a debut maiden with that bloodlines on Poly assuming the horse had good conformation and the connections had
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But, Miff, I never mentioned early speed in any part of the submission.
If you just want a "random" thought on artificials, would you assume that a horse moving from Delmar with a 919' stretch will run as good as that same horse at Keeneland where the stretch is over 1200'?
I've made no mention of "early speed", but there are some artificial horses out there t
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Guys,
Determining which horses will or won't move up on surface changes is not as big a mystery as you think. Without insulting anyone's intelligence, distances, race types, surfaces all change, but the one thing that never changes is a horse's pedigree. I think many handicappers have had it handed to them on the Poly, Cushion, Pro Ride and Tapeta because of a variety of reasons
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