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Thoro-Graph
Looking back, since it wasn't one of my races yesterday, I see the play, but have this question: why not 17-1 Acclimate and/or, if applicable, how did you decide between the two. Congrats on a nice score.
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Sorry to hear you didn't cash as a result of having to put in your plays before knowing the odds. Even with that disadvantage, my day after looks at your analysis lead me to believe that it won't take long to remedy the problem. In any event, thanks much for your interesting response.
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I doped & bet on the race, so I knew the outcome when I posted. Tupper Lake was in & lost the 6th on Sun at low odds. My initial inquiry was re the 6th on Sat, an understandable mix-up on your part, but that is not the reason for this post. I also looked at the Haw Sun card & am curious enough about your reference to Sun 6th being a "Nickle Race" to ask the question which is
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The race was an 8.5f Ill-bred stakes which included 3 horses which had approx the same last sprint no, a 9. Two had what I think most sheet players would consider solid lines, but were short odds. The 3rd, Rolling Sea, had run an 18-26-9 & was coming out of a mcl win, but was 28-1. I expected this horse to have been overlooked as a likely "bounce" candidate when I looked this mornin
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You no doubt already know this, but the expert player I was referring to recently gave me a layman's tutorial in poker bots, bots to detect & beat poker bots, common forms of online collusion, etc. The reality/perception of cheating in online games of "chance" is probably why one of the rules at , which is of some interest despite my showing at the TP contest Sun, is that all s
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A well written letter to the editor, which I'm sure you're very aware of, in yesterday's drf makes these points quite well. The best hold-em player I know is the engineer I sometimes mention here, & he also holds the opinion that the very idea of a poker bad beat is nonsense, since that's the equivalent of differentiating between a "good" vs a "bad" st
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Saying that a measurement cannot be made absent additional information, which is what I said, is very different than saying that there is no way the measurement can ever be made, which is what you seem to be saying. Drag is routinely measured for cars & in other fields, & could either be measured exactly or closely estimated for individual horses.
Wind does affect final time, but wha
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My layman's take on the basics after an in-depth discussion with an expert in the field of aerodynamics:
1. Drag does not increase in a linear fashion as wind speed increases, & is probably negligible until wind speed, determined by adding the speed of the horse to the speed of the headwind, using the most straightforward example, reaches a point where drag increases exponentially.
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Apparently no one, not even Newton,is perfect. A number of tracks, including CD, used to have $1 pk6s. The reason for adopting the $2 min, according to track execs, is that alhough, as pointed out, there would be additional daily handle if the min was $1, that additional daily handle would decrease the chances of a big carryover like there is at CD today. The increased handle on big carryover day
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If he had taken an interest in racing, Newton would have been a unique, or very close to unique, participant, based on his response to praise that he had revolutionized peoples' understanding of how the world worked, which was, in words or substance, assuming I'm remembering correctly: "If I have seen far, it is because I have stood on the shoulders of great men." It is very r
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I'm guessing from your post that the "stuff" you read was JB's interpretation of the research studies, as opposed to the studies themselves. If that's true, this is an instance where I can invoke one of my favorite cliches: "In God we trust. Everyone else we check." If you're as interested in this subject & have as open a mind as it seems, what you migh
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I would appreciate some clarification, since the statements on this topic left me a little confused:
(1) I take it from the statement that "small changes mean a lot when there is a long straightaway" that the distance from the gate to the turn is one of the variables in the wind adjustment formula. Assuming that's the case, is it correct to conclude that the wind adjustment for
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You are right to a certain extent,no doubt, but I never miss & rarely have much bad to say about Sar, & this yr was the 1st one in 3 or 4 that I ended up on the plus side at the end. Imo, the gambling at CD is usually even better than it is this fall at Kee because of all the overflow claiming races. If you get that kind of race right, & there are usually many different approaches, yo
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The winner of yesterday's last, by dq, had the best tg number & I see this morning was the analysis play. The difference, as I see it, was the 7/2 would have been 5/2 in NY. Along similar lines, the sheets/analysis play in the 8th would have been 3-1 in NY instead of 5-1, & the 2nd place finisher in the 7th, the horse I thought was the best exotics key of the day, would have been clo
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"Loser" might be too strong a word after cashing on & keying a 38-1 shot. I just wish I was the one who bought the analysis, since Lucas' horse was the only one in the top 6 that I didn't use in the super, which I thought was the right approach, as before the race it seemed as likely, or maybe even more likely, that the winner would run 2nd or 3rd from an outside post at 8
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At least that's what I just read, when he appears after PVal at approx 7:30pm tonight on a racing interview/call-in show on
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Thanks to Deb for the link. I don't want to sound overly pessimistic, but Pratt's work is 20 or more yrs old, & I'm all but certain it was not considered at all in connection with any of the many new tracks which have been installed over the last 5 yrs. In fact, I would be willing to wager that most of the individuals in charge of installing those new tracks has still never hea
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They apparently raised about $75k, which would have been higher if I had simply donated what I bet instead of trying to make a score or two to donate at a track I still don't know anything about. Hopefully, the industry as a whole & the posters here will do a whole lot better on Oct 8, which has been designated at Racing to the Rescue day. It's also Md Million Day, & I'm pr
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That $4k tri in the last was certainly one you could sink your teeth into. Thinks seemed to be heading in the wrong direction, but no use stopping now. At 6-1 I'll take a chance on what might possibly be a recovery pattern & key the 7 in the top two spots the tri. Good luck on your pk3s.
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Slewtown & Curjo look best in the 3rd, but I have a hunch that Current Odds can run some at 60-1. Let's try the 1,6 over the 1,3,4,6,9 & see what happens. You know what they say. You can't hit all but one of the tris on the card unless you catch one of the 1st two.
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The $40 tri was a little disappointing, but you can't hit every tri on the card unless you hit the 1st one. Reimburse Me looked like a possible key in the 2nd at the 10-1 ML, but 3-1 is way too short. No reason I can see why Precocious Aggie can't run a race at 6-1. Both on top over the two other obvious contenders.
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I've called and/or emailed everyone I could think of. Nothing to report other than that. Best response was TVG, who seems to be outfront in promoting this. I assumed that meant they would be showing the races live, but now I'm not so sure. Free video if needed at:
These will be my 1st Evg races as well, cubfan. Didn't know nos this high were assigned to any horses, but all thi
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It's obvious at this point that, for whatever reasons, nothing is going to happen on the contest front in time for tomorrow's Evg card. Nonetheless, hopefully a significant number will take advantage of JB's largesse & bet the card, especially now that TVG & Youbet have announced that they will also be donating everything they take in. I second msola1's comments re the
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From the posts I had a chance to read, it seems like a fair number from each camp are itching for some friendly, hopefully, competition. What I propose, which is open to suggestions, as long as they're made in time for an announcement on the AP feed this afternoon, is that both camps bury the hatchet for one night & do something along the following lines:
(1) TG & Sheets make the
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Maybe. Maybe not. In the mid-80s there was a scientific study where diffferent bettors were given different amounts of handicapping information, & the conclusion was that although the players with more info felt significantly more confident than those with less info, there was no appreciable difference in results. There is a lot more info available since that study was conducted almost 20 yrs
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What you need to keep in mind when relying on their site is that, based on the richiebee story, NY is still using the "honor system" for this information. Thus, concientious & honest trainers like Motion make the info avialable sufficiently in advance for it to make the late changes section on the site. For the rest, a guy with a clipboard goes from trainer to trainer in the paddock
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...since the 2nd generation version, which I understand is very different from what didn't work at Rem, has been in use at Lingfield Park for some period of time, & was in continuous use there from Oct 2004 through March 2005, if I understand their website correctly. It's been used at the Kee training track since 9/04 & horses have been working on it at Turfway since the beginni
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NcTony, & my cohort Howard & I, were in attendance for all or part. I know Bill, who I respect, but was very interested in meeting Julian, who I can say without fear of contradiction is an interesting guy who holds, & has no fear in aggressively backing, very strong opinions, which get stronger as the odds increase. Good stuff & highly recommended, even if you already have a hat.
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As often as not, what happens in contests at the smaller venues has a distinct "make it up as we go along" feel, kind of like the inconsistent & inexplicable decisions of the stewards at Dmr this meet. This contest consisted of 8 of the 10 live races at Col, & because he was a trainer, the guy you're talking about was prohibited from making plays in two of those races, so
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NCTony won day money & is in 1st place by $7 after day 1 of the Col contest, derby1592 came within a hair--again-- of qualifying for the AmTab Open, & I'm guessing that even if they had the usual 3500 or more entered, 4 of 8 has at least a decent chance of getting me to the brisnet contest in Dec., where 7 World Series spots are up for grabs. If you aren't following my advice &a
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