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Thoro-Graph
Per the drf, Mr Shurman being the only person ever to win two in one day is impressive, as is the fact that this is the 4th consecutive time he has qualified for the NHC. I don't know what his Bradley total was, but the most impressive thing of all to me was achieving a "blow away the field" roi of 757% on Del's Sun card, given the three races which were taken off the turf &am
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Posting the names of the contestants in advance is something I've not seen before, & something I wish the Gallos had done, as it might have saved me a trip to South Dakota, where I never was able to locate the elusive dodie. I only recognized 5 as "regulars", but there's no doubt that the list includes a number of locals who have a bit of an advantage because they know Col
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I don't follow Calif racing regularly, but would be inclined to think that in comparison to my overall & possibly incorrect impression of a somewhat speed favoring turf course at Hol, the additional cushion in the new turf track at Dmr would tend favor off the paces horses to a certain degree. Perhaps those that follow the racing there more carefully have an opinion.
I remember a Dave
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My main thoughts today are two: (1) OPM is on the 1st page of the leaderboard after day 2 at the Gold Coast, and after what happened last time, it would be great, & poetic justice to boot, if he's on top when they wrap things up today; & (2) If the 8-1ML holds up, Cristel's horse in the Emerald at Cby seems worth the longest of looks.
Our level of experience at Col is the sam
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I've heard nothing but good things about the Col contest, & following their races on a regular basis should give you an advantage, since the contest races are limited to those at Col. That & relatively low prize money usually limits the size of the field, another advantage.
There is one thing I would suggest if there's anyway you can manage it, namely convince a trusted frien
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Same positive as Dutrow, & presumably the same approach when & if the suspension actually occurs: transfer the horses to an "assistant" who ends up with an even better win pct. In other words, no real penalty other than a paltry $3k fine, & tough luck for those who bet the horses which finished behind Tales of Glory.
P.S. bit: Enjoyed your pithy comment, esp the w
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The speed figures chapter of Six Secrets, which I read windshield wiper style while waiting for a book club meeting to end, has this interesting & marginally related theory from an anonymous contributor: It isn't the accuracy of sheets figures which makes sheets players such strong players, but their absolute belief in the figures' accuracy, which gives them the needed confidence to
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CD Wed. - 18 years ago
It's basically a "satellite" contest, consisting of imaginary $2 win/place bets, which don't have to be on the same horse, on CD live races 3 through 8. Both weeks I was there approx 225 contestants entered, & you qualify for the July 7 contest if you're in 15th or better when the dust settles. It's $25 per entry with a three entry max & a $5 per entry discou
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Not sure if Linda's eligible for a double yet, although I'm pretty sure she & Judy signed up for something with your man Bill not long ago. Judy,btw,told me recently that she hasn't used the other guy's product for two yrs or more. Her current focus is finding longshots based on breeding, which is how she hit a cap horse in the last race, & won the RD contest & $10
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Heartfelt congrats to Linda on qualifying for the NHC. Looks like you beat your friend Judy to the punch this yr, & that the boys will be facing another formidable distaffer next Jan.
It's always sad when racing loses a devoted fan, especially one as humble & unassuming as Orbs, who was not the kind of guy to pontificate on this Bd re his theory of photography handicapping, the pr
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Classhandicapper: Your post reminded me of an expression one of my favorite colleagues, a wise & cynical curmudgeon, invariably used to describe a Chicago exec we both knew: "Never in doubt. Often in error." This is not the place for a long dissertation on what has happened & what is happening in equine ins. markets. Suffice it to say that you have no idea what you're talki
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There are many reasons why the cost of insurance, assuming it's even available, has become prohibitive, & most have very little to do with the increase in the value of horses. Stallions with the same & higher values could be insured at much lower rates 10, & even 5yrs ago, & there were a lot more than the six Lloyd's syndicates which currently participate in the market.
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I have a vague recollection that I went through a comparable example when Smarty retired, but the simularities between the owners & posts are such that it might bear repeating. Let's start out with the not unreasonable assumption that Alex's value as a stallion is the same as Smarty, $39 million. Next yr's premium for ASD/Fertility coverage, assuming there is capacity for the f
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Not sure if Putin allows Moscovites access to race replays, but if he does, you might get a kick out of the 3rd at Canterbury yesterday. Hopes are high for the big day after that performance.
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I'll be there if these high winds in Calgary die down long enough for my flight to take off at 6am tomorrow. With the big bonuses being offered, I thought SD might be a soft spot to qualify, relatively speaking, but this past weekend at Stampede someone showed me a drf article which indicated that an exceptionally strong field will be in attendance. With help from my comrades, I was fortunat
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Not exactly a home run, & maybe a bit longer & more repetitive than necessary, but very much improved. I'm not familiar with that specific quotation from the Oracle of Omaha, but can say unequivocally that it contradicts one of he & Charlie's key tenets, to never act until you gather & understand the best data available. Exactly the opposite of what I think you're d
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My 1st reaction when I read this one was that this game would be quite a bit easier, though probably not as much fun, if the horses were as predictable as you're becoming. I particularly enjoyed the reference to the book where, if memory serves, Andy finally admitted that much of what he had writing about sheet players over the yrs was what might be characterized as idiotic gibberish. Sort o
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I expected there would be some backsliding, but it was still a little disappointing to read your suggestion that we change the subject to 2yr old vs. 3yr old pedigrees. Maybe we can discuss that somewhere down the road, but for now I would ask that you try a little harder to stick to the subject we are discussing now, which is the factors you have identified as aspects of your brand of handicappi
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Fair enough. I think if you're a little more cautious about how you say things, stay on subject, & not repeat yourself too awful much, 99% or more of your problems will disappear. With few exceptions, the posters here are friendly & reasonable, not to mention very good handicappers. Don't be defensive if someone asks you to post in advance of a race. It's one of the best wa
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Bit: Nothing naive about your questions. The study I was referring to was limited to fast dirt races between 5.5 & 10f. Be glad to see that you get it when I get back next week if you can figure out some way that I can contact you.
Beyer: I follow what you're saying, but wouldn't it depend on the amt bet per race? I think the roi would be the same if one person bet 1x on ten races
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Nothing about the impact of pace on the race I asked you not to talk about. That part was good. Most of the rest, well, to be honest it wasn't so good, but I did learn one thing, namely why others have expressed frustration with your penchant for changing the subject. Let's deal with that issue by limiting the discussion to one subject & one subject only. I'll suggest the 1st t
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You very much need to do something about this fixation you have with the Ky Derby. I have no interest whatsoever in discussing or reading your views on that race again, ever. What I'm trying to say is that I have no interest at all. None. Zero. Nada. In fact, I'd be very much obliged if you never mention the Ky Derby & how you feel pace impacted the race again, ever, if there is eve
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Under the circumstances, the "I don't understand why everybody's being mean to me" argument is nonsense. I haven't read all of the exchanges, but the recent ones consist of you taking a position & others either disagreeing with or questioning the thinking behind your position. If you think I'm wrong, let me suggest one possibility which never seems to enter your
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HP is ready & willing, & I know from past contests that he's able. Here's your chance to demonstrate how your various theories actually work in practice, not to mention the possibility of bragging rights. Plenty of stakes on Preakness Day, which ought to be right up your alley. No reason I can see for passing up a golden opportunity to unseat the Champ.
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I'm guessing you didn't read my post re the $8k tri you missed while working overtime, which I'm not saying made you cranky, but I'm pretty sure would have made me cranky. Very cranky in fact. Among other things, I asked what in the world FWIW means. I assume it's an acronymn & the 1st three words are something along the lines of "Fight With Iconoclastic.."
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I don't know what FWIW means, but I hope you're an investment banker, as it's one of only a few ways that your overtime pay could make up for missing that $8k tri. Assuming you didn't peak Sat, I get the impression you might be sitting on a new top when a week from Sat rolls around. If memory serves, you're still the undefeated & undisputed Champ, & if you're
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It might be a rationalization, but in these kinds of situations I tell myself that the important thing is to have made the right plays, since that is the only thing within your control. Actually, there is one other thing. You can make sure you don't lose one of the seven $1 tix sold on the biggest super in history. Today's story about the guy who made the play, never got the ticket, &am
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Since you mention two races that were a lot more interesting to me than the big one, here's my possibly idiosyncratic take on what happened. I went in believing that one or more of the undercard races would be a putovers, & I think Simon's winner in the 5th & Roman's winner in the 11th fit the bill. With the win Sat, Simon has shipped 5 horses to Ky over the last month or s
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Assuming the polytrack which is being installed at TP works out reasonably well, I am told that it will be installed at Kee, the US distributor, before spring. It's gotten very positive reviews from horsemen since it was installed at the Kee training track a number of mos. ago.
Ah yes, Summerly. I played Rush Bay into Summerly in the 9th-10th double on Fri, & then tried to play her wit
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