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Thoro-Graph
No answers...so lets stick to the facts. Byk/Haskins confirmed that JJ stays on Gunnevera. I love it that so many are dying to play LAL if he gets in. Might be the biggest overlay in the exotics ever. Not because he cant get there but that everyone will be using.
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Niall
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Have seen nothing about Malagacy not running or JJ jumping off Gunnevera written anywhere. DRF or Bloodhorse or KYDerby.com .... what gives?
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Niall
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I am sure that he wouldnt. Using the analogy that sometimes a trainer doesnt know the horse is sick until the stress of a race brings it out, maybe the big # run as FTL exacerbated the regression. Its too bad we may find out in the KY Derby as one of the Favs (likely).
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Niall
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Was listening to Steve Byk yesterday and heard that the Excelsior came back with a 119 Beyer. Didnt catch what the Wood winner rec'd, but that nmbr is Arrogate territory. Cant wait to see the track variant. Wondering if the FTL in the Holy Bull precipitated the Moon bounce for IWC in the FOY?
The Oaks s/b interesting as well with Mandella's horse running off the screen 1st time long
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Niall
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Not trying to defend but please note that this P4 are races 6-9, not the traditional late P4 or the All Stakes P4. The DRF entries at present include the wagering menu.
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Niall
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People who have been at this a lot longer than I and have wagered substantially more as well always say about Pletcher, Brown, Baffert... take the longer of the 2. If there's value to be had, thats where you find it. Arrogate and Danza come to mind. Sure looks like its gonna be crazy!
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Niall
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Not sure how "insightful" this will be, but happy to share. As I previously mentioned, the TAP entries have common ownership and were BIG $$ purchases. However they were not purchased by TAP Bloodstock but by St Elias/Brooklyn Boys et al. To the best of my recollection they have had little success in terms of ROI. Always Dreaming hung like a NY Bred rat at Saratoga while with Schettino.
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Niall
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A lot of these horses have common ownership as in St Elias is same as Vialo Racing and Brooklyn Boys is MEB, so they are running against themselves. Divide and conquer I guess, and get to the KY Derby any way possible!!
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Niall
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I looked and still cant determine distance traveled. Still, that a lot of ground loss. Thanks!
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Niall
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I'm really interested in seeing the figs for these races. It will be a real challenge for whoever, I think. Track changing and wind were definitive factors. It seems for both surfaces you did not want the rail, especially the later turf races. The Dubai website has Trakus charts but no trakus "distance travelled". If ever there was a use for this, it was on this day. Check out the
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Niall
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Anyone catch this race? 1-5 #3 wipes out the 2 at the start and then gets dq'd from 3rd. The online telecast then had the cujones to put up the CHRB explanation about reasonably affecting the placing. Just wondering if they changed the rule (or interpretation) since the BC fiasco. I mean the 2 was an absolute no hoper imo. Anyway, as to this thread, they drop the 1-5 out of the exotics and p
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Niall
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I was only interested in playing p5 and P4 tickets, using top rated horses and favorites who were contenders, and who I though might jump up. Except I didnt.
4 of the top 5 winners in the p5 were the highest rated horse, Suffused not being on of them. Did not use Tahgleeb, was heavy towards to 4 and 11. Oh well ...
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Niall
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I'm going to be using the Form ratings (& DRF PP's) tomorrow at Gulfstream. At first glance, there are one or 2 that I wasnt going to play but now must, and at least a few that I had considered using but will not. Unless of course I expand my bankroll early in the card...
On another note, NYRABETS and XPressBet are running promotions that refund your money on a win bet if your ho
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Niall
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Same with the #3 Risetotheoccasion in the 7th. Highest rated goes off at 17-1 and completes the exacta with the 2nd highest rated winning. $87
Looks promising JB
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Niall
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In the 3rd at Aqueduct # 4 Chorus Line was an obvious play based on the ratings, good for an almost $40 Exacta. Not easy to do in a 5 horse field!
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Niall
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In keeping with my yearly tradition of continuous improvement in my handicapping and wagering strategy, I checked my results against the analysis and have to say Well Done to Thorograph! Thanks for giving us the opportunity to do so...
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Niall
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None taken - the original post said 30% on P3 ect... I checked HANA and you are correct. Reduced rake on the P5 at Laurel is enticing.
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Niall
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I'm a small player but aware (& knowledgeable) of most of the issues that are at play in this game. I spend a lot of time at it, but understand that it can consume you. After all, there is a direct correlation between time spent and results. The takeout issue is one that I pay attention to. 30% is egregious. I will play the doubles to satisfy having skin in the game, and wager on the goo
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Niall
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Thought I saw somewhere that there was a P5 carryover at KY Downs tomorrow... anyone else see that?
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Niall
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Crying over spilled milk I am, but the irony is aggravating me. Better than I can explain, read the Bloodhorse article about the appeal of the non-dq in this race. Basically, even if not coupled in wagering, for the purposes of interference they can be treated as though they were coupled, I think. The irony for me is that I was all over Creator in the Belmont and cashed nothing. My only win was t
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Niall
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I totally respect anything that Jim C posts here but really see this race differently. Flintshire could have tipped out at any time on the back side and went 5 wide and may have won for fun. Johhny V went overland and we know where Flintshire went. The wagering premise of this race was betting MM and hoping for a bad trip for Flintshire. Remember this is a horse that hasnt closed the deal in quit
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Niall
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My attempt at analysis ... Given the short field and likely short odds, this race for me is normally a pass, however, it is a NYRABETS free Travers $$ race (bet $50 to win, receive $25) and I am 2 for 3 thus far in these races. Appreciate any feedback. Full disclosure I am incorporating multiple handicapping tools (TG/Bris/Replay)
Wellabled - Arlington shipper courtesy of Larry Rivelli. Not t
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Niall
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When you get the chance take a gander at the replay of the above race, run earlier today. Hard to believe that the winner wasnt DQ'd. Then again, perfectly believable...
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Niall
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I'm sure all NYRA Bets a/c holders were looking closely at this wager. Who wouldnt, even with the cap? All the advertisements say Zero % on WINNING bets, resulting in a 25% + bonus. Is it possible to just rake the losing wagers? If so, this would result in a far less bonus than advertised. Just wondering ... Thoughts?
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Niall
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Chad Brown plungers that is... However, can he lose The Curlin? Of interest to NYRA Bets account holders, it's a bet 50 to win on one horse in the race and get 25 to wager on The Travers card race. The link is broken and will be magically fixed as soon as the race goes off. Who let them unleash a new website with all the errors I want to know...when is the TG open? May have to dust off the c
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Niall
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Whoa...ease up... There's a card to handicap. Ahh on 2nd though let him have it. I'm guessing he can take it as his results can speak for him. His method would seem to take the joy out of it though. Onward...Only looked at the DRF PP's when I soon realized that I was in over my head. Using Last Waltz and Coolmore (at m/l), no matter. Looking forward to reading your posts. Good luck
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Niall
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So many things that I'd like to get opinions on from the board ... A. Jockeys. The good one's are really good and can make all the difference. Is anyone going to be fined for not riding out? B. Track Speed - are horses getting faster? What was the final qrtr for Flintshire? Wind aided? My Super ticket for the Belmont .... 2,13/2,11,13/1,2,11,13/1,2,10,11,13 ... Ouch! Hang it up? Exacta
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Niall
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