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Thoro-Graph
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Great post, exactly the kind of feedback that I was hoping for with this post. Great discussion as well, my thanks to all!!!
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billk5300s
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Does anyone know why they declared the race no contest? I saw a collision and jockey spill, I believe it was Prado, but I didn't hear an explanation.
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billk5300s
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When handicapping with TG there will be symbols for a dead rail(x) or questionable number ($) which can be useful. A lot of tracks such as Hawthorn, Oaklawn, Santa Anita, and Oaklawn appear to have major rail bias. In addition you cannot be wide on the turns, whether a horse has momentum or not doesn't matter, if you more than 4 lengths back you basically have no shot. There may be an occ
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billk5300s
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Ask the Experts
Good morning all. As a lot of you are horizontal players I was curious to hear what your thought are about the Rainbow Pick 6. Our local consensus is that it's nothing more than a lottery and should be named as such. If you don't realize that a unique ticket is the only way to win you could also be easily sucked in. I realize that if it brings $ to the track it's a good thing b
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billk5300s
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Ask the Experts
Checking in with my GP late pick4.
R8) Hangover Kid, Philly Ace
R9) Can't Stop the Kid, No Nay Never.
R10) Storming Intl, Mr. speaker, Cabo Cat
R11) Wild Cat Creek, Full Moon'Back, Law Dog
R9 I hate using Ward because GP has shown speed rail bias. With the 1 scratching out Can't Stop the Kid figures a great
Good Luck To All!!!!!
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billk5300s
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Ask the Experts
I think the biggest mistake that I make is sinking too much money into trifecta's. I usually have a decent ROI on exacta's but I've considered not sinking money into tri's in races where 1 or 2 shorter price horses are likely to reach. What's wrong with a $20 exacta box that pays $14.00 with a 7-5 and 3-1 that are likely to get there? I end up investing $20 into the tr
by
billk5300s
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Ask the Experts
I was under the impression that poly track was the wave of the future because it provided a better cushion for the horses and reduced the amount of injuries. Arlington Park is quick to point this out any time they're questioned about it. From a handicapping perspective I like it because it gives an edge to players that factor poly-stats in whereas the average weekend warriors won't.
by
billk5300s
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Friday night at Houston they bet Shimmy down to 6/5 in the 5th at Houston which was 1-1/16 on the Turf. The filly had never run on the turf and was about 8 points slower than the contenders. Turf breeding was just average so I couldn't see the angle. Shimmy ran 2nd to Miss Mulligan but finished incredibly strong. (Split me on my exacta play of the night). Did I miss an angle with this ho
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billk5300s
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TG selections included a nice win at Santa Anita yesterday. Top pick Zia Zia Zia which was also a BB returned a nice $41.00 win payout. Nice pick guys!!!!
by
billk5300s
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The Illinois ADW bill passed which means there will be a full racing schedule in 2014. The law will expire in 3 years so our legislators will have their hands in the pie yet again.
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billk5300s
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Ask the Experts
It seems that since the weather cleared and Oaklawn has had a fast track the inside bias is major. If you are wide, 3 path and out you may as well be running in quicksand. Not sure what others think but IMHO if you are not inside and close you have no chance.
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billk5300s
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Move Over circled the field so this shows why I shouldn't quit my day job!!!
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billk5300s
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I'm somewhat puzzled regarding race 3 at Gulfstream. Move Over is very fast but has never gone a mile and is not bred for routes. Run In Aruba drew inside and shows marked improvement on dirt. Trainer does well moving synth to dirt. I doubt that Move Over will get things his own way and the trainer is only average going sprint to route. I don't see the value in playing Move Over an
by
billk5300s
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Just logged in to play my picks 4's and found that Laurel and Penn National are scratches for today......
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billk5300s
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I would like to second that Thank You to TG for the freebies. TG data is by far the most accurate, now if I had some better racing luck I'd be all set!!!!
by
billk5300s
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Ask the Experts
Good Morning All,
I realize that most of you are east coast players but I wanted to take a minute to share some news from Illinois. As of 1/1/2014 ADW wagering will be illegal once again in Illinois because the legislators bolted without passing an extension. The local tracks warned that they will run a skeleton schedule if ADW was not passed. Arlington would have only 49 live dates and Hawt
by
billk5300s
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Ask the Experts
After reading the article that was posted yesterday it is very hard to not scrutinize anything out of the ordinary that happens there. Case and point, in the 2nd race tonight which was a F&M stake, Five Star Mama was bet heavily early. She's Ordained was left in the gate leaving Five Star Mama on an easy lead. It appeared that Carmouche stopped hitting his mount and really didn't w
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billk5300s
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Outside post and would need a new top to contend. Bet down to 8/5, Daddy Capps wins easily while wide the entire way. I don't know what I'm missing but I thought that boxing Hannibal Lecter with the entry looked like a solid exacta box play. Go figure!
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billk5300s
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Ask the Experts
Good Evening All,
I'm looking for feedback regarding wagering strategy. TGJB has some guidelines posted which are very good but I have some questions. Do most of you avoid trifectas and superfectas and lean towards exactas and horizontal wagers such as doubles and pick x's? It seems that tris and supers eat a lot of money and the payouts really suffer if a chalk sneaks in. I'
by
billk5300s
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Ask the Experts
Since statistics show that favorites win around 30% of the time it makes sense to scrutinize them closely as TG does. TG is by far the best tool that I've ever seen when it comes to either eliminating phony favorites or identifying a solid favorite. I give TG a lot of credit for posting a race of the week as well. We all know that this is not an easy game yet they put their picks out ther
by
billk5300s
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Ask the Experts
Good Morning All,
I've been reading the Travers posts this morning and it serves as a wake up call. We're all TG players and I'm sure we've all had big plays messed up by questionable runners. I'm a Midwest player and I can tell you that at the Kentucky and Illinois tracks that you MUST factor in the tote board which makes it almost impossible to play ahead of time.
by
billk5300s
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Ask the Experts
I made a play on The Apache and of course I'm not happy about the DQ but I can see why they took the horse down. This was my second DQ of a horse at AP in two weeks and 5 since May, 2 at Churchill, one at Belmont. Having some bad racing luck lately because 3 of those DQ's killed me in gimmicks, all of the winners were over 5-1.
Here is my 2 cents for whatever it's worth. The
by
billk5300s
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Ask the Experts
When TG numbers are calculated there are factors for wide trips and notations for a dead rail on dirt. (I don't recall seeing bias notes for turf). Are numbers for wide trips on the turf adjusted upward when there is a rail bias as seems to be the case at Saratoga?
On a similar note when we observe a track bias is there a rule of thumb to adjust the number of a horse that will benefit fo
by
billk5300s
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Thanks for the input. In hindsight I should have given more consideration to the rest after the new top.
by
billk5300s
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Last night in the 4th race at Indiana, Brenda's Gold drew the rail with tactical speed coming off of a bounce after pairing. It was a 6pt bounce. Is there a rule of thumb when not to use a horse coming off of a bounce, (I.e. if more than 3 pts avoid)? These were 3 yr old fillies. Based on the field and the draw I thought Brenda's Gold was a must use in exactas but ran 5th around the
by
billk5300s
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Does anyone have any thoughts regarding track bias on poly or other synthetic surfaces? It seems that Woodbine favors the outside, wider is better. Arlington can vary but normally inside and close to the pace is better. Hollywood seems to also favor inside and close up? Has anyone else noticed this or are my observations flawed? Thanks!
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billk5300s
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Page 8 of 8
Pages: 45678