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Thoro-Graph
Quick question for the board. Is there a way to tell if a horse entered in an AOC was eligible to be claimed? Thanks and good luck to all!
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billk5300s
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Just a heads up, it appears that Aqueduct cancelled today.
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billk5300s
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Thanks for posting Boscar! I played DFS baseball over the summer and actually won and thought, "hey his is great". I don't play big, maybe $3 to $5 contests but have not won since baseball ended. I've noticed the multiple entries and thought that folks were crazy for playing that many entries but now I see what they're doing. I will be hanging it up!!!
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billk5300s
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I don't see how racing can continue in Illinois Fairmount1. There are legislators saying that racing should be able to stand on its own. Meanwhile every bar, bowling center, and diner in Lake County has poker machines. This state is dysfunctional. Arlington Park is a palace and Hawthorn is a nice facility, it's a shame that they're destined to be lots for condos and town houses
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billk5300s
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Rainwater may win an occasional claimer or allowance race. When his horses are in form they run. There aren't any secret potions associated with money moves on his horses. I agree with Fairmount1 in that he doesn't fit "the list".
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billk5300s
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There are a lot of folks that play along with the analysis. With the small pools it would only take a few players to make the $40.00 investment. It's a credit to the quality of TG products. Another point is that hitting the four horse parlay would cost substantially more than a 50 cent pick 4. You would need to hit the parlay cold to make it feasible to do. With that said maybe the comp
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billk5300s
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Nice call Rick B. I caught the exacta, she ran a nice race!
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billk5300s
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I have a friend that does well at Turfway Park by knowing wagering patterns based on trainers. He'll often bust my chops when I show up with my graphs saying "What do you need those for? Everything you need is on the tote board". Nothing is more frustration than watching your 15-1 shot with a circle pattern not get up in time to beat a smart money horse.
Fantasy sports is har
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billk5300s
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A couple of weeks ago I attended a work outing near the end of the Arlington meet. My co-workers were impressed with my selections using TG but were even more amazed when I told them we probably should pass a race in which the fastest horse was 4-1. There was a horse in a MCL event bet down to even money and when a certain trainer is bet he wins, plain and simple. A couple of my younger co-wor
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billk5300s
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Rob,
Thanks for the feedback, you make excellent points. I do use PP's but rely more on TG. If I note a track bias I adjust accordingly. You had some in depth observations which is a good reminder that when something doesn't look right it needs more research. If I had been playing live I would have given her a second look based on the board. I played early (stakes races are the
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billk5300s
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I'm having a hard time understanding how Unbridled Forever won the Ballerina at 3-1 odds and why this horse was bet so heavily. Prior to the race I felt that even if she ran a new top she was a borderline contender at best. With a big crowd and large pools it took a ton of money to pound this horse to 3-1 and the odds were at 5-2 earlier. For education purposes does anyone have an angle a
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billk5300s
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I really like #7 Film Making in the 9th at the Spa today. Horse had trouble and had to check last time out and Henning has good ROI off of claims. Playing 6-7-9 box in exactas and tris and a little extra with the 7 on top. Good luck to all!
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billk5300s
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Just wanted to send kudos to the TG crew for picking a 23-1 Pine Lake to close out the card at Arlington.
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billk5300s
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Thanks Fairmount1, it never hurts to get a lucky one in there. It poured right before the million which may have helped the Pizza Man but he did win convincingly. He had back numbers but I was concerned that he would need around a 3 point improvement to win and usually 6 year olds with class are pretty consistent on the turf. Of course that's just an opinion. Congrats to his connections,
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billk5300s
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Since this is one of the few days of real racing that we have in Chicago I'm compelled to post a couple of picks.
Race 7)
5-AZ Ridge is 20-1 in the ML, figures to be close and is as fast as any of these.
5-7-11 exacta/tri box
Race 9)
2-Watsdachances is 10-1 and will be close. Close is good at Arlimgton.
2-3 exacta box
Race 10)
Arlington Million looks chalky, box 2/4 but
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billk5300s
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I normally would pass on a horse that looks like a forever maiden but Tom's Vision in the 2nd at Saratoga looks intriguing. Although the 10 post isn't a big help the horse is very consistent and has had excuses in his past 2 races. If he goes off at the 6/1 ML I think there is some value here in a weak field. In think an exacta with Lotza Heat is in order along with a win bet.
Goo
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billk5300s
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If you buy into the horses for courses theory it is indeed relevant. I was more inclined to believe she would run another 3 and I was wrong.
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billk5300s
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Maria - 8 years ago
According to the numbers STM had 1 race in the past two years that would make her competitive in the Shuvee field. I really thought she was 4th best in this field. Time to start throwing darts!
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billk5300s
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Does anyone know if the races will be off the turf today?
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billk5300s
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I have a question regarding weight vs form. If a horse is consistent and fit and going against an inconsistent field does the 1 point for 5lbs matter that much? In your handicapping process would you weight it higher or lower than tactical advantage or track bias?
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billk5300s
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These guys are pond scum. I usually try to avoid that circuit, head similar stories of LAD as well.
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billk5300s
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Good Luck Frank D!!!
I like Reversiontothemean in the 5th. 20-1 ML looks as good as any.
I played 4/5610 tris/supers/exactas.
Good Luck to all!!!!
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billk5300s
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If I missed any discussions on this I apologize, did they rip out the poly track yet or is this meet still poly and astro-turf?
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billk5300s
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Frank, I started going to Arlington in 1976 and enjoyed the country fair atmosphere of the old place, and love the palace that it is today. Sadly rather than sitting outside and watching quality racing we're all inside playing NY or CA. There are a few good turf races but not much else.
I remember Randall Meier trying to wire a field at Sportmans from the 8 path because the inside was d
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billk5300s
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I realize that some of you aren't interested in demise of horse racing posts but for players in Illinois our racing is in a sorry state. (No pun intended). Tomorrow at 9:00pm during the evening news on WGN there will be a story about Illinois racing and how its fate is in the hands of legislators. The tracks in Illinois are losing business to neighboring states who have slots as well as po
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billk5300s
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I made a play on the 5 Kerisma in a weak field because he had better races in the past. He lost to the 2 in a photo but it looked to me like a won by more than a nose, really didn't look that close. Can any of you photo experts take a peak at the race and let me know if I'm crazy?
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billk5300s
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Looks like the rail is good and you need to be close.
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billk5300s
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Hopefully this isn't taken as red boarding but double with Silver Lucky Q (Which was an analysis best bet) and Renombre paid $1400 for $2. I was watching the board to get payouts for Silver Lucky Q and I noticed that Renombre opened up at 1/9 yet went off at 25-1. Not sure how much early action it took to tilt the board like that but somebody felt that horse was ready. I don't recall
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